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Hurricane Elsa Update Statement

2021-07-02 15:20:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 920 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT65 KNHC 021320 TCUAT5 Hurricane Elsa Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 920 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Dominica. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Discussion Number 8

2021-07-02 14:23:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 021223 TCDAT5 Hurricane Elsa Special Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 Surface observations from Barbados indicate that Elsa has become a hurricane, and this special advisory is being issued to update the first 36 h of the intensity and wind radii forecasts. More revisions of the intensity forecast are likely on the next regular advisory. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently entering the hurricane, and a NOAA aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon. There are no changes to the forecast track at this time. It should be noted that the average NHC track errors are 175 miles and 200 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively. Given the larger-than-normal uncertainty and because hazards will extend well away from the center of the storm, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast points. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados and are expected elsewhere in the Hurricane Warning area in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this morning in other portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible over southern portions of Hispaniola on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over Jamaica beginning Saturday night. 2. Heavy rainfall from Elsa will move quickly across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands today, including Barbados. Outer rain bands will impact Puerto Rico late today into Saturday, and southern Hispaniola and Jamaica Saturday into Sunday. Flooding and mudslides are possible. 3. There is a risk of wind and rainfall impacts in portions of Cuba, the Turks and Caicos, and the Bahamas through early next week. Interests in these areas should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. 4. There is a risk of storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula early next week. However, the forecast uncertainty remains larger than usual due to Elsa's potential interaction with the Greater Antilles this weekend. Interests in Florida should monitor Elsa's progress and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1230Z 13.1N 60.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Elsa Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2021-07-02 14:23:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1230 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 021223 PWSAT5 HURRICANE ELSA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1230 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 AT 1230Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ELSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS ...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 9(18) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 5(22) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 5(17) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 5(18) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 23(32) 4(36) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) 4(37) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 10(33) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 10(20) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 15(31) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 16(27) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 19(26) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) 1(17) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 19(28) 2(30) HAVANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) HAVANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 10(17) X(17) ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ISLE OF PINES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 9(29) X(29) CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 2(33) X(33) CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 8(36) X(36) X(36) GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) MONTEGO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) X(22) X(22) MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KINGSTON 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 10(24) X(24) X(24) KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 54(62) 1(63) X(63) X(63) LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 15(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) 41(41) 26(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE BEATA 34 X 3( 3) 71(74) 5(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) 33(33) 6(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 1( 1) 16(17) 4(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 1( 1) 18(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PONCE PR 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AGUADILLA PR 34 X 13(13) 8(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) SAN JUAN PR 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 1 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SAINT THOMAS 34 1 10(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAINT CROIX 34 3 15(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SAINT MAARTEN 34 3 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SABA 34 5 8(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ST EUSTATIUS 34 6 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 7 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) BARBUDA 34 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ANTIGUA 34 11 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) GUADELOUPE 34 28 4(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) AVES 34 35 38(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) AVES 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DOMINICA 34 66 1(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) X(67) MARTINIQUE 34 87 X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) MARTINIQUE 50 9 X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAINT LUCIA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SAINT LUCIA 50 77 X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) SAINT LUCIA 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SAINT VINCENT 50 26 X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) SAINT VINCENT 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BARBADOS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBADOS 50 60 X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) GRENADA 34 13 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Hurricane Elsa Public Advisory Number 8

2021-07-02 14:22:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021222 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Elsa Special Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021 830 AM AST Fri Jul 02 2021 ...ELSA STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.. SUMMARY OF 830 AM AST...1230 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 60.1W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF BARBADOS ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM E OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Barbados has issued a Hurricane Warning for Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines. The Meteorological Service of St. Lucia has issued a Hurricane Warning for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * The southern coast of Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the border with Haiti * Entire coast of Haiti A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southern portion of Haiti from Port Au Prince to the southern border with the Dominican Republic A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and Sint Eustatius * Jamaica * Dominica A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case in the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Cuba should monitor the progress of Elsa. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today, including Hurricane Warnings for portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 830 AM AST (1230 UTC), the center of Hurricane Elsa was located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 60.1 West. Elsa is moving toward the west-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Elsa will pass near or over portions of the Windward Islands or the southern Leeward Islands this morning, move across the eastern Caribbean Sea late today and tonight, and move near the southern coast of Hispaniola on Saturday. By Sunday, Elsa is forecast to move near Jamaica and portions of eastern Cuba. Reports from Barbados indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). Barbados recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a wind gust of 86 mph (138 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). Barbados recently reported a pressure of 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on Barbados, and are expected in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands in the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Windward and southern Leeward Islands within the tropical storm warning areas and are possible in the tropical storm watch areas later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas in the Dominican Republic and Haiti on Saturday, with hurricane conditions possible in southern Haiti. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Jamaica Saturday night or early Sunday. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds in the hurricane warning area in the Windward Islands and along the southern coast of Hispaniola. RAINFALL: Elsa is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches today across the Windward and southern Leeward Islands, including Barbados. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. Over Puerto Rico, rainfall of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 5 inches is expected late today into Saturday. This rain may lead to isolated flash flooding and minor river flooding, along with the potential for mudslides. Across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica, rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches is possible Saturday into Sunday. This rain may lead to scattered flash flooding and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Elsa Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-07-02 14:22:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1230 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021222 TCMAT5 HURRICANE ELSA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052021 1230 UTC FRI JUL 02 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BARBADOS...ST. VINCENT...AND THE GRENADINES. THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARBADOS * ST. LUCIA * ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MARTINIQUE * THE SOUTHERN COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI * ENTIRE COAST OF HAITI A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI FROM PORT AU PRINCE TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES * SABA AND SINT EUSTATIUS * JAMAICA * DOMINICA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ELSA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY...INCLUDING HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 60.1W AT 02/1230Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 0SW 110NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 75SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 60.1W AT 02/1230Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 13.8N 62.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.4N 67.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 90SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.1N 71.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.7N 75.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.2N 77.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 79.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 25.2N 82.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 29.2N 82.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 60.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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