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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 27
2020-10-25 15:59:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 251458 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 Epsilon continues its extratropical transition, as the cloud tops near the center of circulation are warming while the cloud pattern continues to expand over the northern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is being held at 65 kt for this advisory based on early morning ASCAT data. Partial data from a more recent scatterometer pass also suggested this intensity. The cyclone is now moving over waters of only 17 degrees C and the waters ahead of the system are even cooler than that. Epsilon is also interacting with a baroclinic zone as evidenced by a large area of cool and stable air stratocumulus wrapping around the southwestern portion of the circulation. These factors should cause what remains of the inner-core convection to weaken over the next several hours, and the system should complete its extratropical transition by tonight. The post-tropical cyclone will remain large and powerful for the next day or so until it is absorbed by another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic in about 36-48 h. Epsilon is moving quickly east-northeastward at around 30 kt. The cyclone is expected to accelerate even more today, with a fast east-northeastward or northeastward motion expected until the system is absorbed by the other low. The latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one and lies in the middle of the tightly clustered consensus guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 44.3N 49.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 47.0N 41.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/1200Z 51.5N 31.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 27/0000Z 56.4N 23.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-25 15:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 25 the center of Epsilon was located near 44.3, -49.4 with movement ENE at 35 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 27
2020-10-25 15:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 251454 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 ...EPSILON RACING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SOON... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.3N 49.4W ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 44.3 North, longitude 49.4 West. Epsilon is moving toward the east-northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A faster east-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected later tonight through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today and Epsilon is forecast to become a large and powerful extratropical cyclone by tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 0 miles (0 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, portions of the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27
2020-10-25 15:54:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 251454 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 44.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 49.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 96 X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 65 X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) X(65) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Advisory Number 27
2020-10-25 15:53:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 251452 TCMAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 1500 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 49.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 50 KT.......100NE 140SE 70SW 30NW. 34 KT.......200NE 300SE 330SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..540NE 550SE 680SW 360NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.3N 49.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 51.8W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 47.0N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 130SE 110SW 60NW. 34 KT...260NE 320SE 360SW 330NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 51.5N 31.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 110SE 140SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 400SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 56.4N 23.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 110SE 140SW 110NW. 34 KT...300NE 400SE 400SW 400NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.3N 49.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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