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Hurricane Epsilon Graphics
2020-10-25 09:38:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 08:38:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 25 Oct 2020 08:38:21 GMT
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Hurricane Epsilon Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-10-25 09:37:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT42 KNHC 250836 TCDAT2 Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 Although the cloud pattern of Epsilon is beginning to expand over the northwestern portion of the circulation as the hurricane begins its extratropical transition, the storm continues to produce inner-core convection. Recent shortwave infrared satellite imagery suggest that there is some northeast-to-southwest tilt between the mid- and low-level centers. Since there has been little overall change in the inner-core structure since the previous advisory, the initial intensity is held at 65 kt in agreement with the earlier ASCAT data. Epsilon is moving north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream and will be over much colder SSTs later this morning. This, along with an approaching baroclinic zone, should cause Epsilon to quickly lose its tropical characteristics and become an extratropical low by later today. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to remain a large and powerful cyclone over the north Atlantic during the next day or so. The global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will be absorbed by a large extratropical low over the north Atlantic within 48 hours. The hurricane continues to accelerate northeastward, with an initial motion estimate of 050/26 kt. A continued northeastward acceleration is expected through tonight, and rather faster northeastward motion is forecast until the post-tropical cyclone is absorbed by the larger extratropical low Monday night. The track guidance remains tightly clustered and the new NHC forecast track is essentially an update of the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 42.8N 53.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 45.5N 47.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 26/0600Z 49.7N 36.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 26/1800Z 54.7N 26.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 27/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Epsilon Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-10-25 09:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 250836 PWSAT2 HURRICANE EPSILON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272020 0900 UTC SUN OCT 25 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 42.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 83 4(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 45 X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ILE ST PIERRE 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Epsilon (AT2/AL272020)
2020-10-25 09:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EPSILON EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 25 the center of Epsilon was located near 42.8, -53.7 with movement NE at 30 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane Epsilon Public Advisory Number 26
2020-10-25 09:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 250836 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Epsilon Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL272020 500 AM AST Sun Oct 25 2020 ...EPSILON EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY... ...HIGH SURF AND RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...42.8N 53.7W ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Epsilon was located near latitude 42.8 North, longitude 53.7 West. Epsilon is moving toward the northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h). A continued northeastward acceleration is expected through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little overall change in strength is forecast this morning. Epsilon is expected to become a large and powerful post-tropical cyclone later today. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380 miles (610 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Large swells generated by Epsilon will affect Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, the Leeward Islands, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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