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Hurricane Delta Graphics
2020-10-06 01:42:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 23:42:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Oct 2020 21:33:30 GMT
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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-10-04 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042032 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 The center of Marie is now totally exposed, well to the south and southwest of a few remaining areas of deep convection. While Marie's convective pattern resembles a low-end tropical storm, it takes time for systems of Marie's magnitude to spin down, and the initial intensity of 65 kt is based on a blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak numbers from TAFB. A pair of ASCAT passes near 18Z explicitly showed winds near 55 kt, but it likely under sampled the peak winds of the hurricane's tight circulation. The ASCAT also showed that Marie's tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii have not yet contracted very much. The position of Marie was adjusted a little to the west, and the track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but is otherwise very similar to the previous advisory for the first 72 h. After that time, the most recent guidance suggests that Marie, then expected to be a remnant low, could turn due west, or even south of due west. This is a pretty big departure from previous solutions, so the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but not nearly as much as the model consensus. It should be noted that regardless of position, Marie is forecast to be a weak remnant low at 96 and 120 h. High shear, cool SSTs, and stable surrounding air should cause Marie to continue to quickly weaken for the next few days. Simulated satellite imagery suggests that the system could produce intermittent convection for up to 60 more hours. It isn't clear how well organized it will be, and given recent trends it is possible Marie will become a remnant low much sooner than currently forecast. The system will likely dissipate sometime near or just after 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 20.3N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.7N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 21.4N 131.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 22.7N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 23.3N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 23.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1800Z 24.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2020-10-04 22:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 042032 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182020 2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 130W 50 59 X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) 25N 130W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 25N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP182020)
2020-10-04 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARIE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Oct 4 the center of Marie was located near 20.3, -129.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 983 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 23
2020-10-04 22:31:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 042031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 ...MARIE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 129.5W ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 129.5 West. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue for the next few days, with a slight decrease in forward speed by the middle of the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated. Marie is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could become a tropical depression or remnant low by Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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