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Hurricane Delta Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-10-06 04:55:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT41 KNHC 060255 TCDAT1 Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 A few hours ago, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters supported upgrading Delta to a hurricane. Very recent reports from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, who are currently in Delta, support increasing the intensity a little more to 70 kt. The minimum pressure has also decreased a few mb from the NOAA mission, and is now estimated to be 977 mb. Delta has strengthened at a rapid rate of 40 kt since genesis occurred just 24 hours ago. The hurricane is quite compact with a developing tight inner core, and even the tropical-storm-force winds extend only up to 60 n mi or so from the center. After moving westward for much of the day, aircraft fixes from NOAA and the Air Force indicate that the hurricane has resumed a west-northwest motion, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 295/6 kt. Delta is expected to move to the northwest at a fairly quick pace on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between a subtropical high over the western Atlantic and Post-Tropical Cyclone Gamma over or near the Yucatan Peninsula. This motion should take Delta over or very near the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night and over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. After that time, the western part of the ridge is expected to slowly erode as a trough moves eastward across the south-central U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Delta to slow down and then turn northward toward the northern Gulf coast, and it will likely make landfall there in a little more than 4 days. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast is only a touch to the west of the previous one. The hurricane has taken advantage of the near ideal conditions of low vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and very warm 29-30 C SSTs. These favorable environmental conditions for the hurricane will persist for the next 2 or 3 days or so, and therefore, it seems reasonable to believe that rapid intensification will continue in the short term. Delta is expected to become a major hurricane in about 24 hours when it is near the Yuctan Peninsula. If Delta makes landfall on that landmass, it would likely temper the cyclone's strength for a period of time. Beyond a few days, when Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast, there will likely be an increase in southwesterly wind shear. These less conducive upper-level winds and cooler shelf waters should end the strengthening trend prior to the U.S. landfall. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to the HCCA and IVCN consensus models. Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150 miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico beginning Tuesday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect. 2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman Islands beginning early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of Delta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.8N 80.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 82.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 19.8N 84.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 21.5N 87.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/0000Z 23.0N 89.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 08/1200Z 24.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 25.2N 91.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 28.6N 91.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 11/0000Z 33.6N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Delta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-10-06 04:54:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 000 FONT11 KNHC 060254 PWSAT1 HURRICANE DELTA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DELTA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 18(21) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 21(31) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 13(31) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 26(40) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 25(46) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 25(48) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 28(32) 21(53) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 16(19) 26(45) 9(54) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 8(21) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 23(33) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) JACKSON MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 24(53) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 14(26) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 35(67) 9(76) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 25(34) 7(41) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 5(23) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 20(48) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 11(23) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 31(35) 18(53) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 11(27) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 13(30) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 25(28) 16(44) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 26(30) 16(46) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 10(24) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 32(61) 5(66) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 4(36) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 14(18) 2(20) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 9(24) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) FORT POLK LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 10(32) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) LAKE CHARLES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 26(34) 8(42) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 4(17) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) JASPER TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 6(19) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) KOUNTZE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 7(24) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 16(24) 3(27) GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) HOUSTON TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 3(15) FREEPORT TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) FREEPORT TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 18(30) 2(32) GFMX 280N 950W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 1(11) GFMX 280N 950W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 5(21) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 1(16) MATAGORDA TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) MATAGORDA TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) 1(14) PORT O CONNOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ROCKPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) 1(20) GFMX 270N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) GFMX 270N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MCALLEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HARLINGEN TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) X(16) GFMX 250N 960W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) MERIDA MX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) MERIDA MX 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 7( 7) 68(75) 4(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) COZUMEL MX 50 X 1( 1) 44(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) 31(31) 2(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) BELIZE CITY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 12(12) 53(65) 1(66) 1(67) X(67) X(67) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 17(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HAVANA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLE OF PINES 34 1 6( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) GRAND CAYMAN 34 24 16(40) 1(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) GRAND CAYMAN 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 19(35) PENSACOLA NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) PENSACOLA NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 23(50) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) KEESLER AB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Delta Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-10-06 04:53:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020 0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF ARTMESIA AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA HERRERO NORTHWARD TO TULUM AND FROM RIO LAGARTOS WESTWARD TO PROGRESSO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO * COZUMEL A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC * CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO * ISLE OF YOUTH * PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM * RIO LAGARTOS TO PROGRESSO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 80.3W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 80.3W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 79.7W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 82.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.8N 84.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 87.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.0N 89.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.0N 90.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.2N 91.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 28.6N 91.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 33.6N 88.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 80.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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Summary for Hurricane Delta (AT1/AL262020)
2020-10-06 01:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE... As of 8:00 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 the center of Delta was located near 16.5, -79.6 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 980 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Delta Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-10-06 01:42:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTNT31 KNHC 052342 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020 ...DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS BECOME A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 79.6W ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuba province of Pinar del Rio * Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico * Cozumel A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Cuban province of Artemisa * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac * Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cuba province of La Habana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 79.6 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (25 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from data provided by the NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands later tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are expected within a portion of the the Hurricane Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday night, with tropical storm conditions expected beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth beginning Tuesday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba on Tuesday. RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and mudslides. Later this week into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southeastern United States. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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