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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-18 22:58:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:58:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 20:58:46 GMT
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 26
2020-09-18 22:56:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 182056 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Both NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Teddy since this morning. The highest flight level wind measured by the aircraft was 119 kt at 750 mb, which reduces to around 101 kt at the surface. The latest central measured by the aircraft is up 4 mb from the previous advisory, indicating only some slight weakening. Earlier microwave images indicated that an eyewall replacement cycle had been taking place and some drier air had intruded into the southern portion of the circulation, leaving a partial break in the eyewall. This may explain the reason why the aircraft have not been finding winds as strong as they did previously, and in fact found a double wind maxima in the northern portion of the circulation. These eyewall replacement cycles are common in intense tropical cyclones, and oftentimes the systems recover within 12-24 h as long as the environmental conditions support it. Over the past hour or so, the ring of deep convection has appeared less broken and is beginning to expand in size, which could be an indication that the hurricane is recovering from the eyewall replacement. Based on the possibility of some undersampling by the aircraft, the increase of only 4 mb in central pressure, and the latest convective trends, the initial intensity is being lowered only slightly to 110 kt. Teddy continues its long trek northwestward, now at 12 kt. The hurricane is expected to remain on that general course during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves off the northeastern U.S. coast. Early next week, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left and approach Nova Scotia in about 4 days. The models continue to be in good agreement on this scenario, and only small adjustments were made to the previous forecast track. The environment around Teddy will be conducive for maintaining an intense hurricane for the next 24 h or so, as the ocean temperatures will remain warm with low vertical wind shear and a fairly moist atmosphere. After 24 h, the hurricane is forecast to cross cooler waters churned up by Paulette last week. This should cause a slow weakening trend to begin. By Monday night, vertical wind shear is expected to drastically increase ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This should not only weaken Teddy, but begin its transition to a large extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be completed around day 4 of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is near or a little above HCCA and IVCN through 24 h, and then trends toward the SHIPS intensity guidance thereafter. Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The latest maximum seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are near 45 feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda late Sunday or Monday, there is still a risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on the island, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. 2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast through the weekend. 3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 23.1N 57.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 26.5N 59.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 28.1N 61.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 29.7N 62.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 21/0600Z 31.8N 62.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 35.6N 61.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 43.2N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/1800Z 48.5N 59.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Teddy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2020-09-18 22:56:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 182056 PWSAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE TEDDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 28(37) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 32(44) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 22(22) 27(49) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 15(22) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 27(52) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 44(44) 15(59) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) 17(55) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 6(29) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 16(29) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 12(24) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) ST JOHN NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) EASTPORT ME 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 30(57) 1(58) X(58) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 19(23) X(23) X(23) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Hurricane Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-18 22:56:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA AS MAJOR HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUES TO HEAD NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Sep 18 the center of Teddy was located near 23.1, -57.0 with movement NW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 951 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 26
2020-09-18 22:56:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 182056 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 2100 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 57.0W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 270SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 57.0W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 56.6W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 24.5N 58.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 26.5N 59.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 28.1N 61.6W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 29.7N 62.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 31.8N 62.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 180SE 150SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 35.6N 61.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 120NW. 34 KT...310NE 230SE 220SW 290NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 43.2N 62.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 48.5N 59.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 57.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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