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Hurricane Teddy Public Advisory Number 25
2020-09-18 16:39:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 181439 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Teddy Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 ...POWERFUL TEDDY CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... ...LARGE SWELLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 56.1W ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interest in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Teddy. Watches may be required for Bermuda later today or tonight. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 56.1 West. Teddy is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north by early next week. On the forecast track, Teddy will be approaching Bermuda late Sunday or Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Teddy is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are expected during the next day or so, and a weakening trend is forecast to begin late this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser Antilles and the northeastern coast of South America and should spread westward to the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States by the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 25
2020-09-18 16:39:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 181439 TCMAT5 HURRICANE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 1500 UTC FRI SEP 18 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTEREST IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 56.1W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT.......200NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 300SE 300SW 420NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 56.1W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.7N 55.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.3N 57.2W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 160SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 25.2N 58.9W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 90NW. 34 KT...190NE 170SE 130SW 160NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 27.1N 60.7W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...110NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...190NE 180SE 130SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 28.7N 62.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 30.7N 62.7W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 170NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.7N 62.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 80NW. 34 KT...220NE 200SE 170SW 200NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 41.4N 62.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 46.8N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 56.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Smithfield Foods supports Hurricane Laura relief with pork donation
2020-09-18 15:02:00| National Hog Farmer
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Operation BBQ Relief has provided over 4 million meals to first responders, medical workers, veterans and families.
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Hurricane Teddy Graphics
2020-09-18 10:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 08:37:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Sep 2020 09:25:29 GMT
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Hurricane Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 24
2020-09-18 10:36:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180835 TCDAT5 Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Fri Sep 18 2020 Teddy remains a powerful category 4 hurricane with a well-defined eye and intense eyewall. There have been occasional dry slots that have eroded some of the convection in the eyewall and rain bands, but these seem to be transient. The satellite intensity estimates currently range from 90 kt to 128 kt, and based on a blend of that data, the initial intensity is set at 115 kt for this advisory. The hurricane is moving northwestward at 11 kt. Teddy is expected to continue moving northwestward at about the same forward speed during the next couple of days as it moves on the southwestern periphery of a subtropical high pressure system. By the end of the weekend, when Teddy will likely be approaching Bermuda, a turn to the north or north-northeast is forecast to occur as a mid- to upper-level trough moves closer to the system. However, the trough is expected to cut off, causing Teddy to turn slightly to the left early next week and approach Atlantic Canada in 4 to 5 days. The models are in fairly good agreement, and only small changes were made to the previous NHC track prediction. The major hurricane will likely maintain its intensity, or fluctuate in strength, during the next day or so while it remains in generally favorable conditions of low wind shear, warm waters, and a fairly moist air mass. However, the intensity models all show a slow weakening trend after that likely due to Teddy tracking over the cool SST wake left behind from Paulette and an increase in shear by early next week. Teddy is now forecast to transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period based on the global model guidance. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the high end of the guidance envelope, in best agreement with the LGEM dynamical-statistical model. Teddy is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas estimated by TAFB near the core of the hurricane are around 40 feet. Swells from Teddy are spreading far from the center, see Key Messages below. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this weekend and make its closest approach to the island late Sunday or Monday. While the exact details of Teddy's track and intensity near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda is increasing. 2. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 21.6N 55.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 22.8N 56.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 24.7N 58.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 26.6N 59.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 28.2N 61.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 29.8N 62.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 32.2N 62.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 39.7N 61.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 46.0N 62.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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