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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 38
2019-10-01 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 WTNT23 KNHC 012033 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 35.5W AT 01/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT.......150NE 170SE 150SW 150NW. 34 KT.......270NE 300SE 240SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..420NE 540SE 540SW 720NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 35.5W AT 01/2100Z AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 36.8W FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.2N 31.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 140NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 45.6N 24.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 90NE 110SE 100SW 60NW. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 110NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 51.2N 18.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 60NW. 50 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 90NW. 34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 54.4N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT...100NE 160SE 160SW 60NW. 34 KT...250NE 300SE 330SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 53.2N 3.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 35.5W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-10-01 19:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 17:49:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 15:24:43 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-10-01 19:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYE OF VERY LARGE LORENZO MOVING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW... As of 2:00 PM AST Tue Oct 1 the center of Lorenzo was located near 36.0, -36.8 with movement NE at 25 mph. The minimum central pressure was 962 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 37A
2019-10-01 19:49:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 011749 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 37A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 200 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019 ...EYE OF VERY LARGE LORENZO MOVING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN AZORES... ...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.0N 36.8W ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 36.8 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). The hurricane should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-10-01 16:55:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 14:55:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 01 Oct 2019 15:24:43 GMT
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