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Hurricane Lorenzo Forecast Advisory Number 40
2019-10-02 10:33:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 435 WTNT23 KNHC 020833 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019 0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 29.4W AT 02/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 37 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT.......100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT.......200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW. 34 KT.......300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 660SE 780SW 600NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 29.4W AT 02/0900Z AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 31.0W FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 46.4N 24.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 51.6N 16.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW. 50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW. 34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 54.3N 11.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 50 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 53.5N 6.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 120NW. 34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 51.5N 3.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.3N 29.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-10-02 08:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS HITTING THE WESTERN AZORES... ...TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Lorenzo was located near 40.2, -31.3 with movement NE at 40 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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Hurricane Lorenzo Public Advisory Number 39A
2019-10-02 08:36:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 020636 CCA TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 39A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 200 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019 Corrected distance from Flores ...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS HITTING THE WESTERN AZORES... ...TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.2N 31.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Sao Miguel, Santa Maria A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. Seek shelter immediately. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 31.3 West. Lorenzo is moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be moving away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland Thursday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km). A sustained wind of 60 mph (95 km/h) with a gust to 85 mph (140 km/h) was recently reported at the Santa Cruz Airport at Flores in the western Azores. A sustained wind of 50 mph (75 km/h) with a gust to 70 mph (110 km/h) was reported at Horta in the central Azores. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continued within the hurricane warning area for the next several hours. RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores through Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Lorenzo Graphics
2019-10-02 07:50:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2019 05:50:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2019 03:24:35 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane Lorenzo (AT3/AL132019)
2019-10-02 07:48:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS HITTING THE WESTERN AZORES... ...TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES... As of 2:00 AM AST Wed Oct 2 the center of Lorenzo was located near 40.2, -31.3 with movement NE at 40 mph. The minimum central pressure was 960 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.
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