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Tropical Depression INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2013-09-16 22:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 162039 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 76 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 20 NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PESCO MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Depression INGRID (AT5/AL102013)

2013-09-16 22:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 the center of INGRID was located near 23.7, -99.0 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression INGRID Public Advisory Number 18

2013-09-16 22:39:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 162039 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 ...INGRID WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 99.0W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM W OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H. A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND INGRID IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 5.47 INCHES...139 MM...HAS OCCURRED AT CABEZONES MEXICO. WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. STORM SURGE...HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number public advisory tropical

Tropical Depression INGRID Forecast Advisory Number 18

2013-09-16 22:36:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 162036 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL COASTAL WARNINGS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 99.0W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 99.0W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 98.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 23.5N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 99.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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