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Tropical Depression INGRID Public Advisory Number 19
2013-09-17 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170232 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 ...SLOW-MOVING INGRID PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND FLOODS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 99.4W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF CIUDAD VICTORIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS LOCATED BY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE BROWNSVILLE NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR DATA NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL INGRID DISSIPATES ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND INGRID IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON TUESDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...GUSTS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. STORM SURGE...HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS ALONG THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 AM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2013-09-17 04:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 170232 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 12 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 10 NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 20KT NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression INGRID Forecast Advisory Number 19
2013-09-17 04:31:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170231 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 99.4W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 99.4W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 99.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 23.7N 100.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 99.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression INGRID Graphics
2013-09-16 23:12:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2013 20:48:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2013 21:06:24 GMT
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Tropical Depression INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-09-16 22:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 162047 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT INGRID CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THAT HAVE SHOWN DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS FINALLY TURNED WESTWARD. A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHEST IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 23.7N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0600Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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