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Hurricane INGRID Public Advisory Number 14A
2013-09-16 01:44:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 152344 TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE INGRID INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 700 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 ...INGRID SLOWS DOWN AS IT MAKES A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST... ...OUTER RAIN BANDS MOVING ONSHORE THE COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 96.1W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF LA PESCA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO ROJO TO LA PESCA A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF LA PESCA TO RIO SAN FERNANDO * SOUTH OF CABO ROJO TO TUXPAN PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST. INGRID IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF INGRID COULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL BEGIN ONCE INGRID MOVES OVER LAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...MAINLY TO NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...INGRID IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA EARLY MONDAY...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT. STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF INGRID MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane INGRID Graphics
2013-09-15 23:08:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 20:32:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2013 21:04:46 GMT
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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-09-15 22:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 152031 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV MISSION INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. ALTHOUGH INGRID DOES NOT RESEMBLE A CLASSIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE PICTURES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. A COUPLE OF RECONNAISSANCE PLANES...ONE FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE...AND THE OTHER A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH MISSION...SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH AND SIZE OF INGRID THIS EVENING. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...AND DECREASE ABOUT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH INGRID COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BETWEEN THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT AND LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT IS INLAND OVER MEXICO. INGRID IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. INGRID SHOULD TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN BEND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL... AND THE NHC FORECAST GENERALLY SPLITS THESE DIFFERENCES AND IS CLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 22.7N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 23.0N 97.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 23.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 22.6N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1800Z 22.2N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2013-09-15 22:31:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 152030 PWSAT5 HURRICANE INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 12 34 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION X 3 40 39 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 48 66 42 24 NA NA NA HURRICANE 52 31 6 3 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 49 26 6 3 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 3 4 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 1 1 X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 60KT 35KT 25KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CORPUS CHRISTI 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BROWNSVILLE TX 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 250N 960W 34 5 5(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LA PESCO MX 34 30 45(75) 4(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) LA PESCO MX 50 1 19(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) LA PESCO MX 64 X 4( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPICO MX 34 14 42(56) 4(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) TAMPICO MX 50 1 10(11) 2(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) TAMPICO MX 64 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TUXPAN MX 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) VERACRUZ MX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane INGRID (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-15 22:31:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OUTER RAIN BANDS FROM INGRID NEARING THE COAST OF MEXICO... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 the center of INGRID was located near 22.7, -96.3 with movement WNW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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