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Tropical Storm NORA Graphics
2015-10-11 04:51:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 11 Oct 2015 02:36:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 11 Oct 2015 02:50:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2015-10-11 04:41:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 110240 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 Nora's satellite presentation continues to feature an irregular CDO with little in the way of convective banding. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on a blend of the latest TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications. ASCAT data received around the time of the last advisory suggested that Nora is a very small tropical cyclone, with tropical storm force winds only extending outward up to 30 n mi in the northern semicircle. An AMSR2 microwave image from the JAXA GCOM-W2 satellite around 22Z clearly showed the low-level center on the southeastern edge of the deep convection, but convection has formed closer to the center since that time. The near-storm environment should be favorable for some strengthening in the next 48 hours or so, with warm waters and low vertical shear, but there is some mid-tropospheric dry air in the environment that could limit strengthening. After that time, the vertical shear begins to increase as the cyclone recurves, and steady weakening is forecast to begin after 72 hours. The NHC forecast generally follows the trend of the previous one, but no longer explicitly shows Nora reaching hurricane strength. However, this is certainly still possible. The NHC prediction is close to the FSU Superensemble through 36 hours and near the intensity consensus after that time. The ASCAT data and microwave fixes indicated that the center of Nora was located a little southwest of the position in the previous advisory, but the initial motion remains westward at 12 kt. The synoptic reasoning for the track forecast has not changed, as Nora will be steered westward at a decreasing forward speed for the next 36 to 48 hours by a weakening ridge to the north. After that time, Nora should begin to recurve into a break in the ridge and then turn northeastward by the end of the period under the influence of a longwave trough over the north-central Pacific. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted to the south and west of the previous one through 72 hours to account for the initial position and motion, and is near the previous official forecast track after that time. The NHC forecast lies between the latest ECMWF forecast and the TVCE multi-model consensus. With Nora moving into the central North Pacific basin, this will be the last advisory from NHC. Future information on Nora can be found in advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 PM HST (0900Z). FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 11.7N 139.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 11.8N 141.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 11.9N 143.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 12.0N 144.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 12.2N 145.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 14/0000Z 14.0N 146.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 15/0000Z 16.0N 145.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 16/0000Z 17.5N 144.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm NORA (EP3/EP182015)
2015-10-11 04:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... ...NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 the center of NORA was located near 11.7, -139.9 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm NORA Public Advisory Number 7
2015-10-11 04:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 110235 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 ...NORA HEADING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC... ...NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.7N 139.9W ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 139.9 West. Nora is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a westward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nora is forecast to be near hurricane strength on Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Nora. Future information on Nora can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP4, WMO header WTPA34 PHFO, and on the web at http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm NORA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2015-10-11 04:34:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 11 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 110234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 0300 UTC SUN OCT 11 2015 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 8(17) 5(22) 2(24) X(24) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 17(26) 4(30) X(30) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) 1(14) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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