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Tropical Storm NORA Public Advisory Number 6
2015-10-10 22:53:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 102052 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NORA ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 ...STRENGTHENING NORA EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.8N 138.5W ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nora was located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 138.5 West. Nora is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Nora could become a hurricane by Sunday night. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake/Brennan
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Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Advisory Number 6
2015-10-10 22:52:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 102052 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 138.5W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 30SE 30SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 138.5W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 137.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 11.9N 140.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 12.0N 141.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 12.1N 143.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 12.3N 144.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 13.8N 146.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 16.0N 145.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 144.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 138.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm NORA Graphics
2015-10-10 17:07:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2015 14:39:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2015 15:03:44 GMT
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Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2015-10-10 16:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 101439 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 The satellite appearance of Nora has improved slightly during the past several hours with deeper convection near the center and increased banding features in the northwestward quadrant. The initial intensity is raised to 40 kt as a compromise between the TAFB and SAB satellite estimates. Further strengthening seems likely over the next couple of days while Nora remains in a low shear, warm water environment. The models, however, generally show a lower peak intensity with Nora, perhaps due to drier air in the mid-levels, so the new forecast will reflect this trend. The most notable change to the forecast is at day 3 and beyond when the global models are predicting the vertical wind shear to increase earlier and be much stronger than predicted yesterday for the cyclone. Intensity guidance is notably lower during that period, with only the GFDL showing hurricane strength. The latest NHC prediction is similar to the previous one through 48 hours, then is reduced afterward by about 10 kt. That's about the largest change I feel comfortable making at long range due to continuity concerns, but most of the historically reliable guidance is still below my new forecast. Nora is moving westward at roughly 12 kt. The cyclone should move to the west or west-northwest for the next couple of days while it is steered by a ridge over the east-central Pacific. This ridge is forecast to weaken during that time, which should result in Nora slowing down and gradually gaining latitude. A mid-latitude trough should help the ridge break down in a few days and turn Nora northward, although there remains some spread in the guidance when Nora will recurve. The GFS and HWRF models have joined the ECMWF model in predicting a weaker Nora, which results in a delayed northward turn. The official forecast is similar to the previous one through 72 hours, then is shifted westward at long range in accordance with the new guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 11.7N 137.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 11.9N 139.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 12.1N 140.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 12.3N 142.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 12.6N 143.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 13.6N 145.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 14/1200Z 15.9N 145.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 15/1200Z 18.0N 144.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm NORA (EP3/EP182015)
2015-10-10 16:38:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NORA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Oct 10 the center of NORA was located near 11.7, -137.2 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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