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Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Advisory Number 7
2015-10-11 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN OCT 11 2015 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 110233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 0300 UTC SUN OCT 11 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 139.9W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 139.9W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 139.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 11.8N 141.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 34 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 11.9N 143.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 12.0N 144.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 12.2N 145.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.0N 146.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 16.0N 145.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 17.5N 144.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 139.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON NORA. FUTURE INFORMATION ON NORA CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900Z UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP4 AND WMO HEADER WTPA24 PHFO...AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/HNL/CPHC. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm NORA Graphics
2015-10-10 22:53:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2015 20:53:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 10 Oct 2015 20:52:48 GMT
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Tropical Storm NORA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2015-10-10 22:53:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 102053 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 200 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2015 Nora is small tropical cyclone with an irregular central dense overcast and some banding features especially northwest of the center. Microwave data show that the inner core has improved in organization, with a mostly closed ring noted in the 37 GHz channel. With the increasing inner core structure, the initial wind speed is raised to 45 kt, at the higher end of the estimates near the Dvorak value from TAFB. The initial 34-kt wind radii were adjusted inward based on an ASCAT-A pass from 1826Z. Over the next couple of days, the environment near the storm is expected to generally be favorable for strengthening, with very warm waters and low shear anticipated. However, some dry air aloft is expected to temper the intensification, and only a gradual increase in wind speed is expected at this time. Still, with the inner core getting better organized, a faster rate of intensification is possible, with the SHIPS-RI index showing a 25 percent chance of a 30-kt change over the next 24 hours. The intensity forecast will remain close to the previous one in the first 48 hours, above most of the guidance and closest to the GFDL and Florida State Superensemble models. Global models are increasing the wind shear near Nora quite a bit in a few days and keeping it high for the remainder of the period. This will likely cause significant weakening, and the NHC prediction is decreased a little bit at long range, and is below the model consensus. Nora continues moving westward at roughly 12 kt. There has been no change to the synoptic pattern with a ridge expected to gradually weaken to the north of the tropical cyclone over the next couple of days. This pattern should result in Nora decelerating during that time, while generally moving a little north of west. Thereafter, the storm is expected to encounter a weakness in the ridge while a mid-latitude trough digs north of Hawaii. These features should turn Nora to the north and northeast, well east of the Hawaiian Islands. Model guidance has shifted a bit to the south and west on this model cycle, in better agreement overall on a later northward turn. The NHC forecast is shifted westward through 96 hours to come into better agreement with the consensus-based guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 11.8N 138.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 11.9N 140.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 12.0N 141.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 12.1N 143.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 12.3N 144.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 13.8N 146.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 14/1800Z 16.0N 145.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 15/1800Z 18.0N 144.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake/Brennan
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Tropical Storm NORA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2015-10-10 22:53:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 102052 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM NORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182015 2100 UTC SAT OCT 10 2015 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 138.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 145W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 10(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) 19(34) 5(39) 1(40) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 3(12) X(12) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm NORA (EP3/EP182015)
2015-10-10 22:53:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...STRENGTHENING NORA EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OVERNIGHT... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Oct 10 the center of NORA was located near 11.8, -138.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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