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Tropical Storm RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-25 23:08:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Sep 2014 20:49:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Sep 2014 21:04:45 GMT
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rachel
Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 6
2014-09-25 22:48:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252048 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 After strengthening earlier today, Rachel appears to have leveled off in intensity this afternoon. The initial wind speed is held at a possibly generous 45 kt based on the latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. The low-level center of the storm is located near the northeastern edge of the main area of deep convection due to about 15 kt of shear. This shear is expected to lessen during the next couple of days, which should allow Rachel to gain strength. By the end of the weekend and early next week, the cyclone is expected to move over cooler water, and into an atmosphere of southwesterly shear and drier air. These unfavorable conditions should cause a weakening trend. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one in the short term, but is otherwise unchanged and is near the SHIPS guidance. Rachel is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt steered by mid-level ridging to its north and northeast. A large trough currently offshore of the west coast of the U.S. is expected to move eastward causing the ridge to weaken and shift eastward as well. This change in the synoptic pattern should cause Rachel to gradually turn northward during the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, the weakening system is expected to slow down or become stationary when it becomes embedded in weak low-level steering currents. The NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one and slower at the end of the period, following the trend in the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 17.0N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 17.7N 112.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 18.7N 113.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 19.5N 115.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 20.4N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 22.0N 116.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 22.8N 115.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 23.1N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-25 22:42:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 25 the center of RACHEL was located near 17.0, -110.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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rachel
Tropical Storm RACHEL Public Advisory Number 6
2014-09-25 22:42:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 252042 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 ...RACHEL CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 110.8W ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2014-09-25 22:42:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 25 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 252042 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 2100 UTC THU SEP 25 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 5 2( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) ISLA CLARION 34 1 45(46) 16(62) 2(64) 1(65) 1(66) 1(67) ISLA CLARION 50 X 8( 8) 14(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA CLARION 64 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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