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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 11
2014-09-27 04:46:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 270246 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 0300 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.3W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.3W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 116.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.0N 116.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.9N 116.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 116.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 22.1N 116.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 21.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 115.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-26 23:09:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Sep 2014 20:46:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Sep 2014 21:04:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 10
2014-09-26 22:46:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 262046 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 The center of Rachel appears to be reforming a little closer to the deep convection, and in fact looks somewhat elongated on the latest visible imagery. The SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS satellite analyses still show about 10 kt of shear affecting the cyclone, and overall there has been little net change to the cloud pattern today. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing over the next 24 hours, which should allow for some gradual strengthening, but the SHIPS intensity forecast has trended downward this cycle along with the GFDL. After 36 hours, gradual weakening is forecast as the cyclone moves into a drier and more stable environment over marginal SSTs and decay to a remnant low is expected in 4 to 5 days. The NHC forecast has been adjusted downward a little in the short range toward the latest IVCN intensity consensus and is close to IVCN after that time. Given the reformation of the center, the initial position is southwest of the previous advisory. Smoothing through this short- term motion yields a somewhat uncertain initial motion estimate of 295/10. The synoptic reasoning for the track forecast has not changed. Rachel is forecast to turn gradually northward into a break in the subtropical ridge with a decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. After that time, the decaying cyclone is forecast to move little in a region of weak steering currents, with a slow southwestward motion possible by the end of the period. There continues to be a large spread in the track guidance after 36 hours, with the GFS and GFDL taking the cyclone farther north while the UKMET and ECMWF show a more westward to southwestward motion. The new NHC forecast track is generally between the two camps and is a little left of the TVCE multi-model consensus and not far from the HWRF. This track is west of the previous NHC advisory due to the initial position and motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 18.1N 115.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 18.7N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 19.7N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/0600Z 20.6N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 28/1800Z 21.3N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 29/1800Z 22.0N 117.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 30/1800Z 22.0N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 21.5N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-26 22:39:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 26 the center of RACHEL was located near 18.1, -115.0 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Public Advisory Number 10
2014-09-26 22:39:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 262039 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 26 2014 ...RACHEL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 115.0W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND A FURTHER DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO....WITH WEAKENING EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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