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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Advisory Number 6
2014-09-25 22:42:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 25 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 252042 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 2100 UTC THU SEP 25 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 110.8W AT 25/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 110.8W AT 25/2100Z AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 110.3W FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.7N 112.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.7N 113.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 19.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.4N 115.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.0N 116.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.8N 115.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.1N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 110.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-25 17:08:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 25 Sep 2014 14:51:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 25 Sep 2014 15:04:43 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-25 16:51:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL STRENGTHENS... As of 8:00 AM PDT Thu Sep 25 the center of RACHEL was located near 16.3, -109.6 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Public Advisory Number 5
2014-09-25 16:51:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 251451 TCPEP3 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT THU SEP 25 2014 ...RACHEL STRENGTHENS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 109.6W ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2014-09-25 16:51:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 25 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 251451 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 1500 UTC THU SEP 25 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 6 17(23) 1(24) 2(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) ISLA CLARION 34 1 15(16) 39(55) 8(63) 3(66) 1(67) X(67) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 16(17) 7(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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