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Hurricane RACHEL Public Advisory Number 14
2014-09-27 22:32:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 272032 TCPEP3 BULLETIN HURRICANE RACHEL ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 ...RACHEL BECOMES THE TWELFTH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 116.5W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.5 WEST. RACHEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. A NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. LITTLE MOTION IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB...29.21 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Graphics
2014-09-27 17:08:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 27 Sep 2014 14:32:10 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 27 Sep 2014 15:04:46 GMT
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-09-27 16:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 271434 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 27 2014 Rachel continues to exhibit an occasional eye-like feature in infrared satellite imagery, and this was also seen in an AMSR2 pass just after 0900 UTC. However, the overall convective pattern is not terribly impressive, with only a small area of deep convection near the center and little in the way of banding. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. With the inner core trying to organize, there is the potential for Rachel to reach hurricane intensity during in the next 12 to 18 hours before the thermodynamic environment becomes more hostile. After that time, Rachel will be moving over marginal SSTs and into an increasingly dry and stable atmosphere, which should result in steady weakening. The new NHC forecast shows Rachel peaking in 12 hours, and after that time is close to the IVCN intensity consensus while the cyclone decays. The initial motion estimate is 325/07. Rachel should continue turning poleward while it moves into a weakness in the subtropical ridge during the next 24 hours. After that time, the decaying cyclone will be caught in a region of weak steering currents, and a slow north-northwestward motion is shown at 36 to 48 hours. Later in the period, the shallow cyclone should begin moving southwestward as it comes under the influence of a low-level ridge over the northeastern Pacific. The track model guidance still shows a fair amount of spread, but the GFS and GFDL models have continued to trend southward this cycle. As a result, the TVCE multi-model consensus has shifted to the left, and the latest NHC track has been adjusted in that direction at 36 to 48 hours. Otherwise, the new NHC forecast is largely an update of the previous advisory when accounting for the initial position and motion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 19.6N 116.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 20.3N 116.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/1200Z 21.2N 116.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 29/0000Z 21.7N 117.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 29/1200Z 21.9N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 30/1200Z 21.7N 117.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 21.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Tropical Storm RACHEL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2014-09-27 16:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 271432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182014 1500 UTC SAT SEP 27 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM RACHEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
Summary for Tropical Storm RACHEL (EP3/EP182014)
2014-09-27 16:31:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...RACHEL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 27 the center of RACHEL was located near 19.6, -116.1 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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