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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Advisory Number 13
2017-09-18 04:47:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 WTNT24 KNHC 180245 TCMAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 38.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 38.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 37.9W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.1N 39.7W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.2N 41.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 42.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.7N 44.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 38.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Tropical Depression Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-18 04:46:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 17 the center of Lee was located near 13.6, -38.5 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Lee Public Advisory Number 13
2017-09-18 04:46:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 180246 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 ...LEE FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.6N 38.5W ABOUT 980 MI...1580 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lee was located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 38.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Lee is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by late Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Lee Graphics
2017-09-17 22:55:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 20:55:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 17 Sep 2017 21:30:10 GMT
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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 12
2017-09-17 22:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 172049 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Sun Sep 17 2017 A small burst of deep convection re-formed near Lee's center, but since the earlier ASCAT pass barely showed 30 kt, that will remain the initial intensity. Increasing shear and a dry mid-level environment will continue to take a toll on Lee during the next few days. Gradual weakening is still expected, and Lee could lose organized deep convection by 36 hours, if not sooner. The GFS and ECMWF models degenerate the system into a surface trough by day 3, and dissipation is now indicated in the NHC forecast at that time. Lee is moving westward, or 280/7 kt, but it should turn west-northwestward soon due to the weakness of the subtropical ridge to its north. A west-northwestward or northwestward motion should continue until Lee dissipates on day 3. Little change was required to the updated NHC track forecast, which lies close to the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.2N 37.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.5N 38.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 14.3N 40.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.4N 41.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 19/1800Z 16.6N 43.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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