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Tropical Depression Lee Graphics
2017-09-18 22:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 20:38:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 18 Sep 2017 20:38:50 GMT
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Tropical Depression Lee Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-09-18 22:35:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 182035 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 The convective burst that occurred near the center of Lee this morning has dissipated leaving only a low-level cloud swirl. The initial intensity of the system is held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The shear over Lee is estimated to be close to 40 kt according to the SHIPS model, and these very hostile winds and dry air should cause Lee to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 hours. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that whatever is left of Lee will likely open into a trough in 36 to 48 hours. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt steered by the southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The weak system is expected to turn to the northwest and slow down tonight as it moves toward a trough, and it should continue in that direction until it dissipates. Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 42.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 16.0N 43.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 17.2N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 18.7N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Depression Lee (AT4/AL142017)
2017-09-18 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...LEE LOSING ORGANIZATION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... As of 5:00 PM AST Mon Sep 18 the center of Lee was located near 15.0, -42.3 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Lee Public Advisory Number 16
2017-09-18 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 000 WTNT34 KNHC 182034 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Lee Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 ...LEE LOSING ORGANIZATION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 42.3W ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Lee was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 42.3 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph. A turn to the northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected to occur tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and Lee is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Depression Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2017-09-18 22:35:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 182034 PWSAT4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142017 2100 UTC MON SEP 18 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 42.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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