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Tropical Storm Cristobal Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-06-06 16:49:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 14:49:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-06 16:49:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 14:49:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 15:25:39 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-06-06 16:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 061448 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Cristobal's satellite presentation continues to lack the appearance of a classic tropical cyclone, with a large curved band over the northern semicircle and little deep convection near the center. The latest flight-level and SFMR-observed surface wind observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft support a current intensity of 45 kt. Based on the poorly-organized state of the system, some dry air entrainment, and interaction with an upper-level low, only some slow strengthening is forecast, as in the previous advisories. The NHC intensity forecast remains in good agreement with the model consensus. The storm is moving northward at a slightly slower 10 kt. There has not been much change in the track forecast or forecast reasoning. Cristobal should continue northward through a weakness in the subtropical ridge until tomorrow evening, bringing the center to the northern Gulf coast in about 36 hours. Later, a turn to the north-northwest, and then back to the north is forecast as the cyclone moves between a mid-level ridge and a trough approaching the central United States. In 3-4 days, the post-tropical system should accelerate north-northeastward on the east side of the trough and move into Canada. Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it makes landfall. Therefore, users are urged to not focus on the exact forecast path as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well to the east of the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late tonight along the northern Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across west and north Florida today, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today into Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller streams, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley. 4. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions of Mexico and Central America. Additional rainfall from Cristobal will continue to slowly subside, however life-threatening flash floods and mudslides will still be possible through today. Refer to products from your local weather office for more information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 24.2N 90.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 25.6N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 27.4N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 29.3N 90.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...ON THE COAST 48H 08/1200Z 31.5N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1200Z 38.0N 92.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 10/1200Z 47.5N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1200Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-06 16:48:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... As of 10:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 6 the center of Cristobal was located near 24.2, -90.1 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 20
2020-06-06 16:48:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 061448 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 ...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 90.1W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Watch for the Florida Big Bend has been replaced with coastal flood advisories and statements from local National Weather Service offices. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Intracoastal City to Morgan City Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 90.1 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will move northward over the central Gulf of Mexico today and tonight, and will be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal's center is then forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sunday through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast until landfall occurs on the northern Gulf coast. Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf Coast beginning late tonight or Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the eastern and central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12 inches. Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across the Lower to Mid-Mississippi Valley. Additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Mexican states of Quintana Roo and Yucatan, bringing isolated storm totals to 25 inches. This will continue the threat of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes may occur on Sunday across southern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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