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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 22
2020-06-07 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 059 WTNT43 KNHC 070241 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Cristobal has generally changed little during the past several hours. The storm continues to exhibit more of a subtropical appearance in satellite images with a broad wind field and a limited amount of deep convection near the center. The most intense convection has been in a squall line that is well east of the center near or over portions of the Florida peninsula. Data from both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters support holding the initial wind speed at 45 kt for this advisory. The center of Cristobal recently passed very near NOAA buoy 42001 in the central Gulf of Mexico, which was helpful in assessing the storm's minimum pressure. Cristobal is moving northward at about 10 kt between a deep-layer ridge to its east and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should continue for about another day, taking the center of the storm across the Louisiana coast by Sunday night. After the storm makes landfall, a slight turn to the northwest is expected on Monday in response to a mid-level ridge shifting eastward across the southeast U.S. The track models are in very good agreement and only small changes were made to the previous NHC forecast. Cristobal has about another 18-24 hours over water in which it could strengthen. However, given its broad structure, lack of deep convection near the center, and dry air that is wrapping into the west and south sides of the circulation, only a little strengthening is predicted. After the storm makes landfall, steady weakening is forecast and the cyclone should weaken to a tropical depression by late Monday. Cristobal is a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin overnight along the northern Gulf coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue from central to north Florida overnight, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana on Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains into Tuesday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller rivers, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf coast through the Mississippi River Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 26.2N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 29.5N 90.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 08/1200Z 31.8N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/1200Z 38.3N 92.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0000Z 43.0N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/0000Z 50.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2020-06-07 04:41:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 076 FONT13 KNHC 070241 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA FL 34 1 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GFMX 290N 870W 34 22 4(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MOBILE AL 34 2 14(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) GULFPORT MS 34 8 29(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) STENNIS MS 34 10 46(56) 4(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) STENNIS MS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURAS LA 34 67 22(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) BURAS LA 50 X 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BURAS LA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 890W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 890W 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 8( 8) 9(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 21 57(78) 4(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) X(82) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 94 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) GFMX 280N 910W 50 3 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BATON ROUGE LA 34 3 49(52) 12(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MORGAN CITY LA 34 21 53(74) 3(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 7( 7) 13(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) LAFAYETTE LA 34 2 26(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) NEW IBERIA LA 34 4 32(36) 5(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 10 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAMERON LA 34 3 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) JASPER TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 13 6(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) KEESLER AB 34 22 19(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-07 04:41:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF CRISTOBAL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 the center of Cristobal was located near 26.2, -90.2 with movement N at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 22
2020-06-07 04:41:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 070241 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 ...OUTER RAINBANDS OF CRISTOBAL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... ...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.2N 90.2W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Mississippi River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Florida line * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 90.2 West. Cristobal is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the north-northwest. On the forecast track, the center of Cristobal will be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast on Sunday. Cristobal's center is then forecast to move inland across Louisiana late Sunday through Monday morning, and northward across Arkansas and Missouri Monday afternoon into Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is forecast until landfall occurs on the northern Gulf coast. Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure based on surface observations and data from the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs MS including Lake Borgne...3-5 ft Morgan City LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft Ocean Springs MS to Marco Island FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Tampa Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the northern Gulf coast beginning Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the eastern and central Gulf coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley, with isolated amounts to 12 inches. Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf coast. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected across portions of the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern Plains near and in advance of Cristobal. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding and widespread flooding on smaller streams across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible overnight into Sunday morning from Florida westward across the central Gulf coast region. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 22
2020-06-07 04:41:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 070241 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC SUN JUN 07 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI * LAKE BORGNE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY FLORIDA LINE * LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 90.2W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......210NE 180SE 90SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 90.2W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 90.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.6N 90.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 170SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 29.5N 90.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 150SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.8N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.5N 92.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.3N 92.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 43.0N 91.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 50.5N 86.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 90.2W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 07/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO
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