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Tropical Storm Cristobal Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-06-06 22:47:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 20:47:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2020-06-06 22:47:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 20:47:49 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-06 22:47:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 20:47:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jun 2020 20:47:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 21
2020-06-06 22:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062046 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2020 Cristobal continues to lack the appearance and structure of a typical tropical cyclone. In fact, the large radius of maximum wind and convective bands well removed from the center are more characteristic of a subtropical cyclone. Based on earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter observations, the maximum winds are about 45 kt. The central pressure has held steady during the last couple of fixes of the aircraft mission, suggesting no significant strengthening since this morning. Since the system is not well organized and is likely to continue to ingest some more dry air, only a little more strengthening is expected until landfall. The official intensity forecast is unchanged and remains close to the model consensus. The cyclone remains on track and is moving northward, or 360/10 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains unchanged. The system should continue northward between two mid-level anticyclones until it nears the northern Gulf coast. After landfall, a slight building of a ridge to the northeast should induce a turn toward the north-northwest. In 3-4 days, the post-tropical cyclone should accelerate north-northeastward ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough. Thereafter, the global models suggest that the system should merge with an extratropical cyclone near the Great Lakes. The official track forecast is in good agreement with the dynamical model consensus and is also close to the latest GFS solution. Cristobal is likely to remain a broad and asymmetric storm when it makes landfall. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge outside of the Hurricane and Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from the Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for those areas. Life-threatening storm surge remains possible in other portions of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in these locations should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. Tropical storm force winds are expected by late tonight along the northern Gulf Coast from central Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, including metropolitan New Orleans, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for this area. These winds will arrive well in advance of and extend well east of Cristobals center. 3. Heavy rainfall will continue across west and north Florida today, spreading from east to west across the eastern and central Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle into Louisiana today into Sunday. This heavy rain will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Significant flooding will be possible on smaller streams, especially where heavier rainfall occurs over portions of the Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.2N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 26.7N 90.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 28.5N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 30.6N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1800Z 33.0N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 09/0600Z 36.0N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 09/1800Z 40.5N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 10/1800Z 49.0N 88.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 11/1800Z...MERGED WITH EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2020-06-06 22:46:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 062046 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC SAT JUN 06 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 90.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PENSACOLA FL 34 X 3( 3) 8(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 870W 34 12 10(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) MOBILE AL 34 1 8( 9) 15(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) GULFPORT MS 34 1 22(23) 22(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) STENNIS MS 34 1 32(33) 26(59) 1(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) BURAS LA 34 9 63(72) 8(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) BURAS LA 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 34 72 15(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X 2( 2) 23(25) 7(32) 1(33) X(33) X(33) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 47(49) 28(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 68 21(89) 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 20(21) 38(59) 2(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MORGAN CITY LA 34 2 43(45) 26(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) X(71) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 20(21) 5(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X 9( 9) 28(37) 2(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 15(16) 27(43) 1(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) GFMX 280N 930W 34 6 7(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) LAKE CHARLES 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) CAMERON LA 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) JASPER TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KOUNTZE TX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 2 13(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) KEESLER AB 34 5 25(30) 14(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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