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Summary for Tropical Depression Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)

2020-06-04 16:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... As of 10:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 the center of Cristobal was located near 17.6, -91.0 with movement ESE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Cristobal Public Advisory Number 12

2020-06-04 16:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 041444 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 ...CRISTOBAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 91.0W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Campeche to Coatzacoalcos. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today. Interests there and along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 91.0 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this motion should continue through midday. A turn toward the east and northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent northward motion should occur through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of extreme northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico today and tonight. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan... Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 5 to 10 inches. Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Belize and Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

2020-06-04 16:44:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 041444 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 2(12) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 3(15) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) 2(17) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 9(24) 1(25) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 3(18) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 12(28) 1(29) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 4(18) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 4(13) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 3(15) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 3(16) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 1(15) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 1(13) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 12

2020-06-04 16:44:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 041444 TCMAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 1500 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM CAMPECHE TO COATZACOALCOS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. INTERESTS THERE AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 91.0W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 120 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 91.0W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 91.2W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.7N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.0N 90.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.0N 90.3W...NEAR THE COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.9N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 24.7N 90.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...200NE 150SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 26.7N 90.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 30.8N 91.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 35.0N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 91.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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