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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-04 01:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MEANDERING OVER LAND... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES... As of 7:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 the center of Cristobal was located near 18.3, -91.8 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 9A
2020-06-04 01:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 032340 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 700 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 ...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MEANDERING OVER LAND... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 91.8 West. Cristobal has been nearly stationary over the past few hours but a slow southeast or east motion should resume later tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land, and Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches. Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-04 01:40:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2020 23:40:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2020 21:24:52 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-03 22:40:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2020 20:40:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jun 2020 20:40:16 GMT
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-06-03 22:39:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 032039 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 Cristobal continues to move over land and is passing a short distance south of Ciudad del Carmen, where tropical storm force winds, at least in gusts, have been reported. The current intensity estimate assumes only a very slow weakening rate and maximum winds are set at 45 kt for this advisory. Since the system has a large circulation, the weakening should continue to be at a slow rate and the cyclone is expected to become a tropical depression by late Thursday. Once the center re-emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, which is forecast to happen on Friday, re-intensification should begin. However, the model guidance currently suggests that the atmospheric environment over the Gulf will not be very conducive for strengthening. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, but is at the high end of the guidance suite. As has been noted, however, there is significant uncertainty as to how strong Cristobal will be when it approaches the northern Gulf coast. This is due to the limitations of predicting tropical cyclone intensity change. The storm continues to move southeastward quite slowly, or 135/3 kt. Cristobal should move in a partial cyclonic loop, and remain over land, while embedded within a broad gyre over Central America and eastern Mexico. Later in the forecast period, an increase in southerly flow is likely to cause the system to move back over water and approach the northern Gulf coast this weekend. The official track forecast follows the dynamical model consensus TVCA. Key Messages: 1. Damaging and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Mexico and Central America. Cristobal is expected to produce additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Even though Cristobal has made landfall, tropical storm conditions will continue along and near the coast of Mexico through Thursday, especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern Chiapas states. 3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night and move northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. There is a risk of storm surge, heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.3N 91.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 18.0N 91.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/1800Z 18.3N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0600Z 19.0N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/1800Z 20.3N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/1800Z 24.0N 90.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/1800Z 31.7N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Pasch
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