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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-03 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MOVING OVER LAND... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES... As of 4:00 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 the center of Cristobal was located near 18.3, -91.8 with movement SE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 9
2020-06-03 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 032038 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 ...CRISTOBAL WEAKENING VERY SLOWLY WHILE MOVING OVER LAND... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 91.8W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 91.8 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward the east is expected by tonight. A turn toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by Friday, and over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening will occur while the cyclone moves over land, and Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches. Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-06-03 22:39:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 032038 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 11(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 6(25) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 12(18) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 5(15) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) SHREVEPORT LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) JASPER TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FRONTERA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) KEESLER AB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-06-03 22:38:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 032038 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 2100 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 91.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 91.9W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.0N 91.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.3N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 19.0N 90.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.3N 90.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 90.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 24.0N 90.6W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 28.0N 91.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 31.7N 92.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 91.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 8A
2020-06-03 19:39:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 031739 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 100 PM CDT Wed Jun 03 2020 ...CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY OVER LAND NEAR CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO... ...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 91.9W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 91.9 West. Cristobal is moving toward the south-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and a turn toward the east is expected later today. A turn toward the north-northeast and north is expected on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico through Thursday. The center is forecast to move back over the Gulf of Mexico by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cristobal will likely become a tropical depression by Thursday evening. Some re-strengthening is expected to begin on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h) was reported at Ciudad del Carmen during the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.41 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Friday night: Mexican states of Campeche, northern Chiapas, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican state of southern Chiapas...15 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...5 to 10 inches. Southern Guatemala...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Belize and Honduras...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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