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Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 11
2020-06-04 10:44:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 040844 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 ...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 91.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today. Interests there and along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located over southern Mexico near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 91.3 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this motion should continue this morning. A turn toward the east and northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent northward motion should occur through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico today and tonight. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, and over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristobal is expected to weaken to a depression during the next several hours. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, primarily over water to the northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan... Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 5 to 10 inches. Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Belize and Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2020-06-04 10:44:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 040844 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 11(20) 2(22) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 6(18) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 16(27) 3(30) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 7(20) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 8(18) LAFAYETTE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 7(18) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 3(18) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) FORT POLK LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 4(15) CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 10(10) 8(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 11
2020-06-04 10:43:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 040843 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0900 UTC THU JUN 04 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. INTERESTS THERE AND ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 91.3W AT 04/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 91.3W AT 04/0900Z...INLAND AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 91.5W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.0N 91.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.7N 90.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.2N 90.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 90.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.9N 90.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.8N 90.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 29.5N 91.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 91.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-04 07:56:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jun 2020 05:56:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jun 2020 03:24:51 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-04 07:56:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MOVING FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 1:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 the center of Cristobal was located near 18.0, -91.5 with movement . The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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