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Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 6
2020-06-03 04:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 030238 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 Cristobal has become a little better organized this evening. There has there has been an increase in convective banding near and to the east of the center in both satellite and radar imagery. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that investigated the storm this evening found peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and peak SFMR winds of 45-47 kt. An automated Mexican weather station on an elevated offshore platform has measured slightly stronger winds than the SFMR, but a blend of these data support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 996 mb on its final pass through the center. Recent aircraft and satellite fixes show that Cristobal has been meandering for much of the day, with perhaps a south or southeast drift evident. The storm is expected to move slowly southward or southeastward as it remains within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern Mexico. This motion should bring the center onshore over the southern Bay of Campeche coast later tonight or on Wednesday. After landfall, Cristobal is forecast to continue to move very slowly toward the east or southeast through early Thursday. After that time, increasing southerly flow should allow the storm to begin moving northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. There has been a slight eastward adjustment in the early portion of the track forecast due to a slightly more eastward initial position, but after 36 h very little change to the previous forecast was required. The new NHC track forecast is again near the various consensus aids and is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Although there is less spread in the track guidance this cycle, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at 72 h and beyond due to the expected land interaction within the next day or so, and a potential for center reformations as the system re-organizes in 2-3 days. Some additional strengthening is possible overnight before Cristobal reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is likely on Wednesday and Wednesday night while the circulation encounters land. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, environmental conditions are expected to support re-intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the HWRF model and is a bit less aggressive than the statistical guidance or the HFIP-corrected consensus model since there is uncertainly regarding structure of the system after it interacts with land. Key Messages: 1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological service for more information. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.1N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1200Z 18.3N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 18.8N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1200Z 19.6N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/0000Z 21.2N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0000Z 25.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/0000Z 29.0N 91.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2020-06-03 04:38:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 030238 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 11(18) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 14(23) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) SHREVEPORT LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) FRONTERA MX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FRONTERA MX 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) KEESLER AB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-06-03 04:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 030238 TCMAT3 TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032020 0300 UTC WED JUN 03 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CAMPECHE TO PUERTO DE VERACRUZ TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 92.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 92.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.7N 92.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.3N 91.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.8N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 19.6N 91.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.2N 91.1W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 25.0N 91.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 29.0N 91.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 92.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 03/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics
2020-06-03 01:58:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 23:58:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jun 2020 21:25:00 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)
2020-06-03 01:57:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS CRISTOBAL A LITTLE STRONGER... ...HEAVY RAIN AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES... As of 7:00 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 the center of Cristobal was located near 19.1, -92.3 with movement S at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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