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Tropical Storm Hernan Graphics
2020-08-28 10:10:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 08:10:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 28 Aug 2020 08:10:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Hernan Public Advisory Number 9
2020-08-28 10:09:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 280809 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Hernan Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 ...HERNAN LOCATED NORTHEAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES... ...COULD ENTER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 107.3W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the southeastern coast of the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of Hernan. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hernan was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 107.3 West. Hernan is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A slow turn toward the west with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so. Hernan is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of California later today and could approach the southeast coast of the Baja California peninsula by late Friday. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next day or so and Hernan is forecast to dissipate on Saturday, if not sooner. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 9
2020-08-28 10:09:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 280809 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 300 AM MDT Fri Aug 28 2020 Shortly after the release of the previous advisory, microwave imagery from a WindSat overpass showed no indication of a well-defined center near Hernan's estimated location. However,there was a hint of a small vortex well to the northeast. Subsequent ASCAT data showed that the well-defined vortex had moved near the Islas Marias and had winds of 30-35 kt. Data from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper showed a continuous maximum in lightning near Hernan's center from yesterday afternoon through the new estimated position. Confidence is therefore fairly high that Hernan has persisted as a tropical cyclone, at least through 0400 UTC this morning. Due to the northeastward relocation of the center, the track forecast has been significantly changed in that direction and now shows Hernan entering the Gulf of California later today. Hernan appears to be quickly moving around a larger low-level cyclonic gyre centered just west of the coast of Mexico. The gyre could steer Hernan or its remnants over the Baja California peninsula later today or early Saturday, but it is not forecast to have sustained tropical-storm-force winds at that time. All of the global models show Hernan opening into a trough within about 24 hours, but it could happen much sooner than that- possibly before Hernan even reaches the Gulf of California. If Hernan does make it to the coast as a depression or remnant low, it could produce some gusty winds before it quickly weakens and dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 22.7N 107.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 23.6N 108.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 24.2N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Hernan Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2020-08-28 10:09:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 280809 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 7(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Advisory Number 9
2020-08-28 10:09:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 280808 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132020 0900 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HERNAN. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 107.3W AT 28/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 120SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 107.3W AT 28/0900Z AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 106.8W FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.6N 108.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.2N 110.6W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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