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Tropical Storm Iselle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-08-28 04:36:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 280236 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 70 20(90) 1(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) ISLA CLARION 50 22 15(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ISLA CLARION 64 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 115W 34 X 16(16) 19(35) 3(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) 20N 115W 50 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Iselle (EP4/EP142020)
2020-08-28 04:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ISELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT... ...THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY LATE FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 the center of Iselle was located near 17.6, -115.5 with movement NNE at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Iselle Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-28 04:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 280235 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Iselle Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142020 800 PM PDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...ISELLE COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE OVERNIGHT... ...THEN EXPECTED TO BEGIN GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY LATE FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 115.5W ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Iselle was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 115.5 West. Iselle is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday night. A northward and then northwestward motion is expected during the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible overnight, but Iselle is expected to begin to gradually weaken late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Iselle and a large area of southwesterly winds to its south are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula tonight and continue through Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Iselle Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-28 04:35:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 280235 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142020 0300 UTC FRI AUG 28 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.5W AT 28/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 60SE 30SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 115.5W AT 28/0300Z AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 115.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.1N 114.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 20.1N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.7N 114.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.2N 114.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 23.9N 115.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 23.9N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Hernan Forecast Discussion Number 8
2020-08-28 04:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 135 WTPZ43 KNHC 280234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132020 900 PM MDT Thu Aug 27 2020 A burst of strong convection has developed near the center of Hernan during the past several hours, but overall the storm remains poorly organized. Indeed, a westerly surface wind observed in the Isla Marias Islands to the north of the center makes it unclear if a closed circulation still exists, a question that upcoming scatterometer data will hopefully resolve. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based mainly on satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion is now north-northwestward or 335/7 kt. The cyclone is expected to turn northwestward and then west- northwestward as it rotates around the northeastern side of the approaching Tropical Storm Iselle. The new forecast track is nudged to the north of the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. A combination of continued strong easterly shear and interaction with the larger Iselle should cause Hernan to weaken during the next 48 h or so. The new intensity forecast shows the system weakening to a depression after 12 h and degenerating to a remnant low by 36 h. After that, the cyclone is currently forecast to degenerate to a trough by 60 h as it gets absorbed into Iselle, and several of the global models suggest this could happen earlier. The new intensity forecast is an update of the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0300Z 20.5N 107.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 28/1200Z 21.6N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 29/0000Z 22.3N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 29/1200Z 23.0N 111.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 30/0000Z 23.4N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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