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Tropical Storm Michael Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2018-10-11 05:30:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 03:30:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Michael Forecast Discussion Number 18
2018-10-11 05:00:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 110300 TCDAT4 Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Data from NOAA WSR-88D Doppler weather radars indicate that Michael has been steadily weakening a a typical rate of decay since it moved inland. However, peak Doppler velocity values are still 80-85 kt between 5000-7000 ft above ground level in large areas in the eastern semicircle. With a recent burst of convection near the low-level center, some of those hurricane-force winds are likely making it down to the surface. Additional weakening is expected due to frictional effects, and the official intensity follows the trend of the Decay-SHIPS model for the next 24 hours while the cyclone remains over land. Sustained winds have dropped below tropical-storm-force across the northern Gulf coast, so the Hurricane Warning has been discontinued for that area. Michael is forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic Thursday night and Friday, where intensification as a robust extratropical cyclone is expected. The low is forecast to be absorbed by another low pressure area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5. The initial motion is now 045/17 kt. Michael will continue to accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded within deeper mid-latitude southwesterly flow ahead of an eastward moving frontal system. By 36 hours, the expected post-tropical cyclone should turn east-northeastward and accelerate further while it moves over the north Atlantic. The latest track guidance is tightly clustered about the previous forecast track, so no significant changes were made. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in these areas north of Duck, North Carolina. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Big Bend. The worst storm surge is expected to continue between Panama City and Keaton Beach, where 3 to 5 feet of inundation is still ongoing. 2. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash flooding over portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeastern Virginia. 3. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 32.1N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 34.0N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 12/0000Z 36.4N 77.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 12/1200Z 39.3N 70.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 13/0000Z 42.4N 60.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 14/0000Z 47.9N 35.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 15/0000Z 49.7N 13.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Michael Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2018-10-11 04:59:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Thu, 11 Oct 2018 02:59:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2018-10-11 04:56:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 110256 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0300 UTC THU OCT 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) X(23) X(23) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) 18(18) 16(34) X(34) X(34) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) WALLOPS CDA 34 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) RICHMOND VA 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 21(21) 16(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) NORFOLK NAS 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X 23(23) 19(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) NORFOLK VA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 23(23) 22(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 46(46) 17(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RALEIGH NC 34 X 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 48(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) ROCKY MT NC 50 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 15(15) 4(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 57(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) X(57) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X 29(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SURF CITY NC 34 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 20(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 3 57(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) COLUMBIA SC 34 38 5(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) X(43) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 15(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 14(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 6 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 23 X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) AUGUSTA GA 34 90 X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) AUGUSTA GA 50 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 47 X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) WAYCROSS GA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm Michael Public Advisory Number 18
2018-10-11 04:56:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 110256 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...MICHAEL WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...STORM FLOODING GRADUALLY DECREASING ALONG THE GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.1N 83.8W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF MACON GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for the Gulf coast of Florida has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Panama City and southeast of Keaton Beach. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Panama City Florida to Keaton Beach Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 32.1 North, longitude 83.8 West. Michael is moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this general motion should continue tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is expected on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move across southwestern and central Georgia overnight, and move through east-central Georgia Thursday morning. Michael will then move northeastward across the southeastern United States through late Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael will steadily weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States through Thursday night, becoming a tropical storm by Thursday morning. Michael is forecast to re-strengthen some Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Panama City FL to Keaton Beach FL...3-5 ft Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck...2-4 ft WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over south-central Georgia tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight through Friday. Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of southeastern Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic coast late Thursday night or Friday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts into Friday... Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida...an additional inch of rain is possible as the hurricane moves away from the state eastern Mid-Atlantic, southern New England coast...1 to 3 inches. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes remain possible tonight and Thursday morning from Georgia into the Carolinas. SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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