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Tropical Storm Marty Public Advisory Number 4
2021-08-24 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 240234 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marty Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 800 PM PDT Mon Aug 23 2021 ...MARTY MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM MEXICO... ...EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.7N 115.8W ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marty was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 115.8 West. Marty is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west-southwest on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Tuesday, and Marty is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by early Wednesday and degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Marty Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-08-24 04:34:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 240234 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 X 19(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-08-24 04:34:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 937 WTPZ23 KNHC 240234 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 24 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.8W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.8W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 115.1W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 20.7N 117.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 20.7N 119.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 20.7N 121.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.7N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.1N 128.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 18.7N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-24 01:32:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 232332 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri, located inland near southern New England. A broad low pressure area is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the east-central tropical Atlantic more than 800 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development is expected during the next couple of days due to only marginally conducive ocean temperatures. Thereafter, however, some gradual development is possible through the end of the week while the system moves northwestward to northward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. A low pressure area over the far eastern tropical Atlantic about 500 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible over the next several days while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Post-Tropical Cyclone Henri can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-24 01:24:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 232324 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Mon Aug 23 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Marty, located about 300 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure located less than 200 miles offshore of Guatemala and southern Mexico is producing some disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week. The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph this week, passing offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Marty are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Marty are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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