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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-24 13:19:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 241119 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Marty, located about 500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. A broad area of low pressure located less than 200 miles offshore of Guatemala and southern Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week. The system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph this week, remaining offshore the coast of southwestern Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Marty Graphics
2021-08-24 10:39:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 24 Aug 2021 08:39:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 24 Aug 2021 08:39:50 GMT
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Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-08-24 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240838 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 Satellite imagery indicates that Marty is currently a swirl of low-level clouds with no associated convection, with this likely due to a combination of northeasterly vertical shear and marginal sea surface temperatures. Recent ASCAT data shows maximum winds of 30-35 kt over a small area in the northern semicircle, so the initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt. The initial motion is still westward, but slower than before, at 270/11 kt. The subtropical ridge to the north of Marty will continue to steer the cyclone generally westward over the next day or two. After that, the weakening cyclone is expected to turn west- southwestward during the latter part of the week within the low-level trade wind flow. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little slower than the previous forecast, and it lies near the various consensus models. Although the current shear is forecast to diminish, a combination of decreasing sea surface temperatures and a dryer air mass along the forecast track should cause continued gradual weakening. The new intensity forecast shows the system weakening to a depression in about 24 h and degenerating to a remnant low by 48 h. If convection does not re-develop near the center, both of these events could occur earlier than forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 20.6N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 20.6N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 20.6N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 20.7N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 20.6N 124.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 26/1800Z 20.4N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z 19.8N 129.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0600Z 18.5N 134.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Tropical Storm Marty (EP3/EP132021)
2021-08-24 10:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARTY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 the center of Marty was located near 20.6, -117.0 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Marty Public Advisory Number 5
2021-08-24 10:37:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 554 WTPZ33 KNHC 240837 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Marty Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 200 AM PDT Tue Aug 24 2021 ...MARTY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 117.0W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marty was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 117.0 West. Marty is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A westward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn to the west-southwest on Thursday. Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is expected, and Marty is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by early Wednesday and degenerate to a remnant low by Wednesday night or Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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