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Summary for Tropical Depression Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-23 01:46:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HENRI WEAKENING BUT STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY... As of 8:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 the center of Henri was located near 41.7, -72.8 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Henri Public Advisory Number 28A
2021-08-23 01:46:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 222346 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Henri Intermediate Advisory Number 28A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...HENRI WEAKENING BUT STILL EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.7N 72.8W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM NE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Henri was located by surface observations near latitude 41.7 North, longitude 72.8 West. Henri is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Monday morning. A slow turn toward the north is expected Monday morning, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast Monday afternoon. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across northern Connecticut or southern Massachusetts by Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12 inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Henri at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada tonight and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-23 01:46:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 222345 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sun Aug 22 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions remain conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or on Monday while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico. Additional information on this system can found in high seas forecasts issued by the NOAA National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. An area of disturbed weather off the coast of southern Mexico is associated with some disorganized shower activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the system move west-northwestward or northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. && High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Henri Forecast Discussion Number 28
2021-08-22 22:53:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 222053 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Henri's satellite and radar signatures have continued to erode during the day today owing to moderate southeasterly vertical wind shear and entrainment of drier and more stable air off of the cooler Atlantic waters. The primary rain shield has shifted into the western semicircle, which is typical for tropical cyclones that are in the early stages of undergoing extratropical transition. Doppler radar velocity data from Upton, New York, and Boston, Massachusetts, along with surface observations indicate that Henri's peak winds have continued to decrease, with any tropical-storm-force winds now confined to the offshore waters of Long Island Sound. Additional spin down of the vortex and weakening of the low-level wind field are anticipated due to land interaction and entrainment of additional stable air. As a result of these unfavorable conditions, Henri should weaken to a tropical depression this evening, and become a post-tropical remnant low by Monday afternoon or evening. Henri is now moving west-northwestward or 290/06 kt. The tropical storm has finally made the much anticipated sharp turn toward the west-northwest around the northeastern periphery of a mid- to upper-level low currently located over southern New Jersey. These two weather systems are forecast to slowly dumbbell in a counter- clockwise motion, with Henri's circulation absorbing the other low by Monday morning, possibly resulting in Henri stalling near the New York-Connecticut border. By early Monday afternoon, a weak mid-tropospheric shortwave currently moving across the Great Lakes region is expected to eject the cyclone or its remnants eastward to east-northeastward across southern New England and into the Gulf of Maine by Monday night, before dissipating near or over Nova Scotia on Tuesday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and remains close to the tightly packed simple- and corrected-consensus track models TVCA, HCCA, and FSSE. Although Henri's winds will be weakening, the cyclone will still continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant flooding across southern New England and portions of the northern mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 41.6N 72.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 23/0600Z 42.0N 73.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 23/1800Z 42.6N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/0600Z 43.0N 70.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 24/1800Z 43.6N 66.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Henri Public Advisory Number 28
2021-08-22 22:40:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT33 KNHC 222040 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Henri Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 ...HENRI WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL CONNECTICUT... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...41.6N 72.4W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NE OF NEW YORK CITY ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SE OF HARTFORD CONNECTICUT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Henri was located by surface observations and and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude 41.6 North, longitude 72.4 West. Henri is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through early Monday morning. A slow turn toward the north is expected Monday morning, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast Monday afternoon. On the forecast track, Henri is expected to slow down further and possibly stall near the Connecticut-New York border tonight, then move across northern Connecticut or southern Massachusetts by Monday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Henri is expected to become a tropical depression this evening and degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low by Monday afternoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, mainly over Long Island Sound. A sustained wind of 29 mph (47 km/h) and a gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) were recently measured by a private weather station at Orient Point on eastern Long Island. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Henri can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Henri is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts expected over portions of Long Island, New England, southeast New York, New Jersey, and northeast Pennsylvania Sunday into Monday. Isolated maximum totals of 10 to 12 inches are possible across northern New Jersey into southern New York. Heavy rainfall from Henri will continue to result in considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding. For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Henri at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc3.html WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force are possible along coastal areas of Connecticut and northern Long Island during the next few hours. SURF: Swells are expected to continue across much of the east coast of the U.S. and Atlantic Canada today and continue into Monday. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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