je.st
news
Tag: tropical
Tropical Storm Marty Forecast Discussion Number 2
2021-08-23 16:32:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marty Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132021 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 2021 Marty is now a sheared tropical cyclone owing to northeasterly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt, which has displaced the bulk of the deep convection, with cloud tops colder than -80C, into the western semicircle. The low-level center is estimated be located near the northeastern edge of the sharp convective cloud shield. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and an objective estimate of T2.6/37 kt from UW-CIMSS ADT. The initial motion remains westward or 280/13 kt. A strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north of Marty is forecast by the global and regional models to remain entrenched across the eastern Pacific basin, keeping Marty moving in a general westward direction for the next couple of days. On days 3 and 4, the ridge is forecast build southward slightly, nudging the cyclone in a west-southwestward direction. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly north, or right, of the previous advisory track, and is also a little south of the tightly packed consensus track models which have shifted northward on this cycle. The moderate northeasterly shear currently affecting Marty is forecast to gradually decrease to 10 kt or less and also become easterly during the next 24-36 hours while the cyclone remains over sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 26 deg C or greater. These favorable conditions should allow for at least slight strengthening during that time. Although the shear is expected to remain low through the remainder of the forecast period, Marty will be moving over sub-26C SSTs and into a drier and more stable airmass. Those unfavorable environmental conditions should combine to erode the central deep convection and weaken the cyclone on days 3 and 4. Marty is forecast to become a depression on Wednesday, degenerate into a remnant low on Thursday, and dissipate on Friday. The official intensity forecast is essentially just an update of the previous NHC forecast, and is about 5 kt above all of the available intensity guidance through 60 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 20.5N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 20.6N 114.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 20.6N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 20.5N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 20.4N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 26/0000Z 20.3N 123.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 20.2N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 19.3N 130.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: number
discussion
storm
tropical
Summary for Tropical Storm Marty (EP3/EP132021)
2021-08-23 16:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MARTY PASSING TO THE NORTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND... ...EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 23 the center of Marty was located near 20.5, -112.4 with movement W at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Tags: summary
storm
tropical
marty
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-23 13:35:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 231135 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Aug 23 2021 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Tropical Storm Marty, located more than 200 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. An area of disturbed weather located just south of the coast of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be favorable for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico while the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. && Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Marty are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3. Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Marty are issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3. $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: north
weather
pacific
eastern
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-23 13:23:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 231123 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 23 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The Weather Prediction Center is issuing Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Henri, located inland over southern New England. A broad low pressure system is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic more than 700 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little development is expected during the next couple of days due to only marginally conducive ocean temperatures. Thereafter, however, some gradual development is possible by the middle to latter part of the week while the system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is expected to form a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea by late week. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become favorable for gradual development while the system moves west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. && Public advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center on Tropical Depression Henri can be found under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov $$ Forecaster Stewart
Tags: weather
atlantic
outlook
tropical
Summary for Tropical Depression Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-23 10:49:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SLOW-MOVING HENRI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 the center of Henri was located near 41.9, -73.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
henri
Sites : [310] [311] [312] [313] [314] [315] [316] [317] [318] [319] [320] [321] [322] [323] [324] [325] [326] [327] [328] [329] next »