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Tropical Depression Henri Forecast Discussion Number 29
2021-08-23 04:44:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 000 WTNT43 KNHC 230243 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Henri Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 Henri has continued to weaken over land and synoptic surface observations indicate that its maximum winds have decreased to near 25 kt. A little more weakening is likely during the next 48 hours, and simulated satellite imagery from the global models indicate that the system will be post-tropical after its expected re-emergence into the Atlantic in 36 hours or so. Beyond 48 hours the dynamical guidance suggests that the system will lose its identity. Satellite imagery and surface data indicate that the center is moving slowly west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. Henri is interacting with another cyclonic circulation over the northeastern United States. As a result of this interaction, the tropical cyclone is expected to briefly come to a halt overnight, turn toward the east-northeast on Monday, and continue an east-northeastward motion into Tuesday. The official forecast track is similar to the dynamical model consensus, TVCN. Although Henri's winds are weakening, the cyclone will still continue to be a prolific rain producer, resulting in significant flooding across southern New England and portions of the northern mid-Atlantic states for the next day or two. This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on Henri. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT3, WMO header WTNT33 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will continue to lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for additional minor to isolated moderate river flooding over portions of Long Island, New England, eastern New York, New Jersey and northeast Pennsylvania. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 41.9N 73.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 23/1200Z 42.1N 73.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/0000Z 42.4N 72.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1200Z 42.8N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 25/0000Z 43.4N 65.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 60H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Depression Henri (AT3/AL082021)
2021-08-23 04:43:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SLOW-MOVING HENRI EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH MONDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 the center of Henri was located near 41.9, -73.2 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Tropical Depression Henri Wind Speed Probabilities Number 29
2021-08-23 04:43:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 000 FONT13 KNHC 230243 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 29 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082021 0300 UTC MON AUG 23 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HENRI WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CONCORD NH 34 1 7( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 1 4( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) WORCESTER MA 34 3 10(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 7 9(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BOSTON MA 34 1 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HYANNIS MA 34 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 1 8( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 4 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NEW HAVEN CT 34 5 6(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) HARTFORD CT 34 6 8(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) NEW LONDON CT 34 2 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ALBANY NY 34 10 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 8 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) MONTAUK POINT 34 2 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLIP NY 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEWARK NJ 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
2021-08-23 01:48:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
000 ABNT20 KNHC 222348 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 22 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Henri, located inland over Connecticut. Disorganized shower activity over the eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Little, if any, development is expected to occur during the next couple of days. Some gradual development, however, is possible by the middle to latter part of the week as the system moves northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Depression Henri Graphics
2021-08-23 01:46:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Aug 2021 23:46:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Aug 2021 21:22:42 GMT
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