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Subtropical Storm Rebekah Public Advisory Number 4
2019-10-31 15:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 311433 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Rebekah Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 ...REBEKAH LOSING ORGANIZATION OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.7N 35.3W ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM WNW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Rebekah. There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Rebekah was located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 35.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h). An eastward turn with some increase in forward speed is anticipated by early Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. The storm should weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone by this evening or early tomorrow. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rebekah is forecast to be a post-tropical cyclone when it moves near the Azores in a day or so. Please see products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for hazard information in the Azores related to Rebekah, which can found at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Subtropical Storm Rebekah Forecast Advisory Number 4
2019-10-31 15:33:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 31 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 311433 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192019 1500 UTC THU OCT 31 2019 INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF REBEKAH. THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 35.3W AT 31/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 90SE 90SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 35.3W AT 31/1500Z AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 36.2W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 41.1N 32.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 41.0N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.7N 35.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Subtropical Storm Rebekah Graphics
2019-10-31 09:35:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 31 Oct 2019 08:35:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 31 Oct 2019 08:35:48 GMT
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Subtropical Storm Rebekah Forecast Discussion Number 3
2019-10-31 09:33:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 310833 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Rebekah Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 500 AM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 Rebekah's cloud pattern has eroded significantly since the previous advisory and only a narrow band of fragmented convection remains in the northeastern quadrant. There are no signs of any upper-level anticyclonic outflow, so the cyclone will retain subtropical status. Earlier ASCAT-A/B/C overpasses indicated several 38-39 kt surface wind vectors in the southern semicircle and given that Rebekah is now moving at a faster forward speed, the intensity remains at 40 kt despite the degraded convective pattern. The initial motion estimate is 065/18 kt. Rebekah is forecast to move east-northeastward to eastward around the southeastern periphery of a larger non-tropical low pressure system for the next day or two before dissipating by 48 hours. The model guidance has shifted northward significantly and the official forecast has been moved in that direction as well, but not as far north nor as fast as the model consensus, lying closer to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model solutions. Rebekah will be moving over cooler waters that are less than 20 deg C and into a stronger vertical wind shear regime by 12 h and beyond. This combination of unfavorable dynamic and thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to steady weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone in 24 h or less, with dissipation expected by 48 h. Although the center of Rebekah is expected to pass north of the Azores, those islands could still receive gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, especially on the southward-facing slopes of elevated terrain. Since Rebekah is not expected to be a tropical or subtropical cyclone when it nears the Azores, hazard information can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 39.7N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 12H 31/1800Z 40.6N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM 24H 01/0600Z 40.6N 29.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1800Z 40.3N 25.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Subtropical Storm Rebekah Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2019-10-31 09:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU OCT 31 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 310833 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192019 0900 UTC THU OCT 31 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 6 27(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) PONTA DELGADA 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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