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Subtropical Storm Rebekah Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-11-01 03:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 010232 TCDAT4 Subtropical Storm Rebekah Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 Rebekah's cloud pattern consists of a tight swirl of low clouds, but most of the deep convection vanished a few hours ago. A recent ASCAT pass still shows a well defined circulation with winds of 35 kt. Consequently, the initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt in this advisory. Assuming that the convection, as anticipated does not return, Rebekah will become post-tropical cyclone soon and will likely dissipate in 24 hours or sooner. The cyclone is forecast to move eastward with the mid-latitude flow and as indicated by track models. Hazard information for the Azores can be found in regular products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) for those islands at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 40.8N 31.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 40.5N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Subtropical Storm Rebekah Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-11-01 03:32:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 01 2019 000 FONT14 KNHC 010232 PWSAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192019 0300 UTC FRI NOV 01 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Subtropical Storm Rebekah Forecast Advisory Number 6
2019-11-01 03:32:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 01 2019 000 WTNT24 KNHC 010231 TCMAT4 SUBTROPICAL STORM REBEKAH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192019 0300 UTC FRI NOV 01 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 31.3W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 18 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 120SE 100SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 31.3W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.8N 32.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 40.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.8N 31.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Subtropical Storm Rebekah (AT4/AL192019)
2019-11-01 03:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...REBEKAH FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Oct 31 the center of Rebekah was located near 40.8, -31.3 with movement E at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Subtropical Storm Rebekah Public Advisory Number 6
2019-11-01 03:32:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 000 WTNT34 KNHC 010231 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Rebekah Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192019 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 31 2019 ...REBEKAH FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.8N 31.3W ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM NW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Rebekah was located near latitude 40.8 North, longitude 31.3 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected through Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The cyclone should weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone early Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Hazard information for the Azores can be found in products issued by the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) at https://www.ipma.pt/pt/index.html. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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