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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2

2018-08-15 16:52:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 784 FONT15 KNHC 151452 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Subtropical Storm Ernesto (AT5/AL052018)

2018-08-15 16:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 15 the center of Ernesto was located near 38.1, -46.0 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Public Advisory Number 2

2018-08-15 16:51:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 591 WTNT35 KNHC 151451 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 15 2018 ...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...38.1N 46.0W ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 38.1 North, longitude 46.0 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today, and a faster northeastward motion is expected by late Thursday and should continue through early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. The system is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone Thursday night or early Friday. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown

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Subtropical Storm Ernesto Forecast Advisory Number 2

2018-08-15 16:51:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 169 WTNT25 KNHC 151451 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052018 1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.1N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 45.9W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.3N 45.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.3N 43.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 140SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.6N 40.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 140SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.4N 35.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 150SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 52.3N 21.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...MERGED WITH LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.1N 46.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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