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Tropical Storm Barry Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-07-13 10:42:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Sat, 13 Jul 2019 08:42:00 GMT
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Tropical Storm Barry Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-07-13 10:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130841 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 Barry continues to inch its way toward the Louisiana coast with some of the northern bands now moving across southeastern Louisiana. Satellite and radar imagery still indicate that the storm has an asymmetric structure with most of its deep convection located to the south and east of the center due to ongoing north-northwesterly shear. The convection has been expanding though, and some bands are starting to wrap around the northeastern side, which could indicate some decrease in shear. The initial intensity for this advisory is held at 55 kt, which is in agreement with recent ASCAT passes and a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Doppler radar velocities between 10000 and 12000 feet show winds of 60-67 kt, but based on surface observations and the ASCAT data these might not be mixing down to the surface. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Barry in a few hours and the data they collect should provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity. Barry continues its erratic motion toward the west-northwest. Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 300/4 kt. A northwestward turn should occur soon, and the center is expected to cross the coast of south-central Louisiana within the next 6 to 12 hours. After that time, a turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast as the cyclone moves inland over the Mississippi Valley toward a weakness in the ridge. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the west of the previous one, but it remains on the eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the GFS and ECMWF models. Although not explicitly shown in the forecast below, Barry is still expected to be a hurricane before it makes landfall later today. After landfall, steady weakening is expected and Barry is forecast to become a tropical depression in about 36 hours and degenerate into a remnant low in two to three days. The global models show the remnant low dissipating over the Ohio Valley in 3 or 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the guidance in the short term, but in line with the consensus models after that. Key Messages: 1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels have already begun to rise in these areas, with peak inundation expected to occur later today. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. 2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of southeast Louisiana into Mississippi. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where tropical storm warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 29.1N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 29.8N 92.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/0600Z 30.9N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1800Z 32.3N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0600Z 36.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Barry Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2019-07-13 10:41:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 000 FONT12 KNHC 130840 PWSAT2 TROPICAL STORM BARRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022019 0900 UTC SAT JUL 13 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WHITING FLD FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PENSACOLA FL 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) GULFPORT MS 34 6 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) STENNIS MS 34 13 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) BURAS LA 34 18 5(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) GFMX 280N 890W 34 4 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) JACKSON MS 34 3 7(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 61 5(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 280N 910W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BATON ROUGE LA 34 83 8(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) BATON ROUGE LA 50 33 7(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) BATON ROUGE LA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MORGAN CITY LA 50 87 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) MORGAN CITY LA 64 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 39 40(79) 4(83) X(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 1 19(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LAFAYETTE LA 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAFAYETTE LA 50 62 14(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) LAFAYETTE LA 64 10 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 50 68 11(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) NEW IBERIA LA 64 10 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SHREVEPORT LA 34 3 7(10) 11(21) 2(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FORT POLK LA 34 29 46(75) 3(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) FORT POLK LA 50 X 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) LAKE CHARLES 34 70 21(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) LAKE CHARLES 50 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAMERON LA 34 87 5(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) CAMERON LA 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JASPER TX 34 11 26(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) KOUNTZE TX 34 13 15(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 35 14(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) GALVESTON TX 34 7 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HOUSTON TX 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FREEPORT TX 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 17 6(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MATAGORDA TX 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT O CONNOR 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Summary for Tropical Storm Barry (AT2/AL022019)
2019-07-13 10:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAINBANDS OF BARRY BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... As of 4:00 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 the center of Barry was located near 29.1, -91.8 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 993 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 12
2019-07-13 10:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 130840 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 ...RAINBANDS OF BARRY BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.1N 91.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM W OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans * Intracoastal City to Cameron A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Biloxi * Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle * Intracoastal City to Cameron A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 91.8 West. Barry is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A motion toward the northwest should begin soon, followed by a turn toward the north tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will make landfall along the south-central Louisiana coast later today. After landfall, Barry is expected to move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana coast later today. Steady weakening is expected after Barry moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. A mesonet observation in Houma, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A storm surge of 2.8 feet was recently reported at a National Ocean Service tide gauge at New Canal Station. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley beginning as early as later this morning. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across western portions of the Tennessee Valley. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions currently spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning area in southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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