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Tropical Depression ONE-E Public Advisory Number 4

2016-06-07 16:57:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 071457 TCPEP1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED OVER THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.3N 95.0W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SSE OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Escondido to Boca De Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area today and tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression One-E was located near latitude 15.3 North, longitude 95.0 West. The depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). The system is expected to slow and turn toward the north today. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate either over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or just inland over southern Mexico by Wednesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated amounts of around 10 inches possible through Wednesday over the southern Mexican states of Oaxaca, Chiapas, Tabasco, and eastern Veracruz, and over western Guatemala. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds, primarily in gusts, are possible in the watch area today. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Tropical Depression ONE-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2016-06-07 16:57:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 071457 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 1500 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Advisory Number 4

2016-06-07 16:57:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 071457 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 1500 UTC TUE JUN 07 2016 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO ESCONDIDO TO BOCA DE PIJIJIAPAN A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 95.0W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 95.0W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 95.1W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.7N 94.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.0N 94.6W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 95.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Tropical Depression ONE-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2016-06-07 16:57:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071457 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012016 1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 07 2016 The tropical depression has substantial deep convection associated with it this morning, primarily located within in its eastern semicircle. A 12Z Dvorak current intensity number of 2.0 from TAFB and a 28 kt observation from ship OZWA2 earlier this morning are the basis for maintaining the initial intensity of 30 kt. It is unclear, however, whether a well-defined surface center still exists in association with the system. First-light visible satellite pictures and imagery from the Puerto Angel radar remain ambiguous as to the structure of its circulation. The initial motion is a very uncertain 60/6 with the tropical cyclone being steered primarily by the low to mid-level flow on the south side of a deep-layered trough over central Mexico. The tropical depression should slow its forward motion and either dissipate over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or just inland over southeastern Mexico. The official track forecast is near the TVCN ensemble mean and somewhat north from that of the previous advisory. The tropical depression is being affected by moderate southerly vertical shear this morning. This as well as proximity to the high terrain of southern Mexico and advection of dry air into its circulation should likely prevent intensification into a tropical storm. All statistical and dynamical guidance show dissipation within about a day, regardless if it remains over the Gulf of Tehuantepec or makes landfall. The official intensity forecast is nearly the same as that from the previous advisory. The main hazard from the depression is the potential for heavy rainfall, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over southern Mexico and western Guatemala, especially in areas of high terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.3N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 15.7N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 16.0N 94.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 09/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

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