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Hurricane Michael Public Advisory Number 12A
2018-10-09 19:41:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 091741 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 100 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018 ...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 86.4W ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should monitor the progress of Michael. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 86.4 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States by Friday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is 965 mb (28.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft Crystal River FL to Aripeka FL...4-6 ft Aripeka FL to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday. RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday... Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods. Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast...1-3 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and southern Georgia. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Kirk Public Advisory Number 12A
2018-09-27 01:47:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 694 WTNT32 KNHC 262347 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kirk Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018 800 PM AST Wed Sep 26 2018 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING KIRK... ...FINDS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.7N 56.1W ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF BARBADOS ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Lucia * Dominica * Martinique * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or watches could be issued tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was located by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 56.1 West. Kirk is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Kirk will move over the Lesser Antilles within the Tropical Storm Warning area Thursday afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk crosses the Lesser Antilles, followed by weakening over the eastern Caribbean Sea. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. Aircraft data indicate that the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by Thursday afternoon. RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall of 4 to 6 inches across the northern Windward and southern Leeward Islands with isolated maximum totals up to 10 inches across Martinique and Dominica. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Gordon Public Advisory Number 12A
2018-09-05 13:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018 289 WTNT32 KNHC 051142 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Gordon Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018 700 AM CDT Wed Sep 05 2018 ...GORDON WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUES... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 89.9W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Gordon was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 89.9 West. Gordon is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Gordon will move across the lower Mississippi Valley today. A turn toward the north-northwest and north is forecast to occur on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts in a few squalls near the center. Additional weakening is expected as Gordon moves farther inland. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast will gradually subside this morning. RAINFALL: Gordon is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over the western Florida Panhandle, southwest Alabama, southern and central Mississippi, northeastern Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, southern Iowa and Illinois, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through early Saturday. This rainfall will cause flash flooding across portions of these areas. WIND: Wind gusts to tropical storm force could occur near the center of Gordon during the next few hours. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today and tonight over Mississippi and western Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Beryl Public Advisory Number 12A
2018-07-08 13:53:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 081153 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 800 AM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 ...BERYL MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL DISORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 56.8W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM ENE OF BARBADOS ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM E OF MARTINIQUE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominica * Guadeloupe A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Barbados * Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic should monitor the progress of Beryl. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the poorly defined center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 56.8 West. Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Beryl or its remnants will approach the Lesser Antilles today, cross the island chain tonight, and move near or south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is anticipated during the next 48 hours, and Beryl is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure as it moves across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Dominica and Guadeloupe tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas of the Lesser Antilles by later today or Monday. Strong gusty winds are also possible in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches through Monday across the southern Leeward and northern Windward Islands. Across Puerto Rico, rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches are expected. Across the remainder of the Leeward and Windward Islands and the Virgin Islands, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Carlotta Public Advisory Number 12A
2018-06-17 20:04:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 171803 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Carlotta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042018 100 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018 ...CARLOTTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 101.6W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Tecpan De Galeana to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Carlotta was estimated to be near near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 101.6 West. Carlotta is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the small core of Carlotta or its remnant should move inland over southern Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Carlotta could dissipate later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Carlotta is forecast to produce 3 to 6 inches of rainfall along the Guerrero and Michoacan coasts, including the city of Acapulco, with isolated higher amounts of 10 inches possible. These rains are likely to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across the states of Guerrero and Michoacan, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 4 inches are forecast. SURF: Swells generated by Carlotta are affecting portions of the coast of southern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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