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Hurricane Lorena Public Advisory Number 12A
2019-09-20 13:42:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 201142 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Lorena Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 600 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 ...CORE OF HURRICANE LORENA APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 109.0W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM E OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from La Paz to Puerto Cortes A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula north of San Evaristo to Loreto * West coast of the Baja California peninsula north of Puerto Cortes to Puerto San Andresito A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. Additional watches or warnings may be required for portions of this area later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorena was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Lorena is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Lorena will pass near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and then gradually move away from the west coast of the peninsula tonight and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Weakening is likely to begin by Saturday night, and then either degenerate into a remnant low, or become absorbed by Tropical Storm Mario in a few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in the southern Baja California peninsula later today, with tropical storm conditions beginning by this morning. Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Saturday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches, with maximum amounts around 8 inches, across the far southern Baja California Sur. This rainfall may result in flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Dorian Public Advisory Number 12A
2019-08-27 13:47:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 271147 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 800 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019 ...DORIAN MOVES ACROSS ST. LUCIA INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 61.2W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF ST. LUCIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Puerto Rico * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Martinique * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Puerto Rico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Dominica * Grenada and its dependencies * Saba and St. Eustatius * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque * Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Dorian. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was located by surface observations and Martinique radar data near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 61.2 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Thursday: Barbados...Additional rainfall up to 1 inch, storm total around 6 inches. Windward Islands from Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches. Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches. Puerto Rico and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods, especially where totals exceed 4 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by late Wednesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area beginning late Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles today. SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Barry Public Advisory Number 12A
2019-07-13 13:52:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 000 WTNT32 KNHC 131152 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019 700 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019 ...BARRY GETS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST... ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.3N 91.9W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM S OF LAFAYETTE LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans * Intracoastal City to Cameron A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Intracoastal City to Biloxi * Lake Pontchartrain A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Biloxi to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle * Intracoastal City to Cameron A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 91.9 West. Barry is moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a turn toward the north is expected tonight or Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Barry will make landfall along the south-central Louisiana coast during the next several hours. After landfall, Barry is expected to move generally northward through the Mississippi Valley through Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near near 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast before landfall, and Barry is expected to be a hurricane when the center reaches the Louisiana coast during the next several hours. Steady weakening is expected after Barry moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The National Ocean Service station at Eugene Island, Louisiana recently reported sustained winds of 71 mph and a wind gust of 85 mph. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 991 mb (29.26 inches). An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Barry. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Intracoastal City to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft Shell Beach to Biloxi MS...3 to 5 ft Lake Pontchartrain...3 to 5 ft Biloxi MS to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft Lake Maurepas...1 to 3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches over south-central and southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected to lead to dangerous, life threatening flooding over portions of the central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley beginning as early as later this morning. Across the remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. By early next week, Barry is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across western portions of the Tennessee Valley. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area later this morning, with tropical storm conditions currently spreading across the area. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are occurring across the Tropical Storm Warning area in southeastern Louisiana at this time. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force in squalls are possible along portions of the coasts of Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through tonight. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight across the southeast Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and southern Alabama. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Xavier Public Advisory Number 12A
2018-11-05 18:44:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 051743 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Xavier Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP252018 1100 AM MST Mon Nov 05 2018 ...XAVIER GRADUALLY PULLING AWAY FROM THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...HEAVY SHOWERS WINDING DOWN ALONG THE COASTS OF COLIMA AND JALISCO... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 106.5W ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Xavier was located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 106.5 West. Xavier is moving a little bit faster toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and an additional increase in forward speed is expected later today. A westward motion is forecast by early Tuesday, continuing through Thursday. On the forecast track, Xavier's center is expected to continue moving farther away from the southwestern coast of Mexico today. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Xavier is expected to degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Xavier is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal sections of the Mexican states of Colima and Jalisco, with isolated maximum amounts of 4 inches possible. This rainfall may produce flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still possible within the warning area during the next few hours. SURF: Swells generated by Xavier will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane Willa Public Advisory Number 12A
2018-10-23 08:00:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 230600 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Willa Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018 1200 AM MDT Tue Oct 23 2018 ...DANGEROUS WILLA EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, WIND, AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 107.3W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Mazatlan, including Las Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Playa Perula to San Blas * North of Mazatlan to Bahia Tempehuaya A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of west-central and southwestern mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Willa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Willa was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 107.3 West. Willa is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the north- northeast is expected later this morning, followed by a faster motion toward the northeast by this evening. On the forecast track, the center of Willa will move near or over Las Islas Marias later this morning and afternoon and make landfall within the hurricane warning area along the west-central coast of mainland Mexico later afternoon or this evening. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (225 km/h) with higher gusts. Willa is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While gradual weakening is forecast today, Willa is expected to be a dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge is likely along portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico in southern Sinaloa and Nayarit, especially near and to the south of where the center of Willa makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Willa is expected to produce storm total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, across portions of western Jalisco, western Nayarit, southern Sinaloa, and far southern Durango in Mexico. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Farther inland, Willa is expected to produce rainfall amount of 2 to 4 inches across the rest of Durango and portions of Zacateca, southeast Chihuahua, and Coahuila, with local amounts to 6 inches possible. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area beginning this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas this morning and continuing into this afternoon. SURF: Large swells generated by Willa will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. Swells should begin to affect portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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