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Tropical Depression Enrique Public Advisory Number 22
2021-06-30 16:38:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 301438 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Enrique Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 ...ENRIQUE WEAKENS INTO A DEPRESSION... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.6N 110.0W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Enrique was located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 110.0 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn to the west-northwest is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique will move over Baja California Sur tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next day or so, and Enrique is forecast to dissipate on Thursday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect portions of the western coast of Mexico and the coast of Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Depression Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 22
2021-06-30 16:37:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 301437 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.0W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 110.0W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 109.8W FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.0N 110.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 25.4N 111.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 110.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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Tropical Storm Enrique Graphics
2021-06-30 10:49:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 08:49:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 08:49:25 GMT
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 21
2021-06-30 10:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 843 WTPZ45 KNHC 300835 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 Enrique is producing a small area of deep convection to the south of the estimated center. This convective area has expanded a bit over the past few hours. On this basis, the cyclone is maintained as a 35-kt tropical storm for this advisory which is a little above the most recent subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Enrique should weaken to a tropical depression today as it interacts with the land mass of the southern Baja California Peninsula. The official intensity forecast is on the high side of the objective guidance, and similar to the previous NHC prediction. Enrique should become a remnant low over the Baja peninsula and dissipate in 36-48 hours if not sooner, if the global models are correct. Although the center is not easy to track on infrared imagery, my best estimate of initial motion is northwestward, or 315/8 kt. This is not inconsistent with imagery from the Cabo San Lucas radar provided by the Meteorological Service of Mexico. A weak ridge to the northeast and north of the cyclone should result in a northwestward to west-northwestward track until dissipation. The official track forecast is on top of the latest HFIP corrected consensus solution. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across portions of northwestern Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days, which will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 24.2N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 110.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 25.3N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 01/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-30 10:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... As of 3:00 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 the center of Enrique was located near 24.2, -109.6 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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