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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 21
2021-06-30 10:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 587 WTPZ35 KNHC 300834 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 AM MDT Wed Jun 30 2021 ...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 109.6W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 109.6 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a turn to the west-northwest is expected later today. On the forecast track, Enrique will move over the southern Baja California Peninsula tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Enrique is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression later today and dissipate on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Outer rainbands from Enrique are expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across Sinaloa, western Durango, and southern Chihuahua in western Mexico and 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. These rainfall totals may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, as well as portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-06-30 10:34:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 300834 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-06-30 10:33:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 350 WTPZ25 KNHC 300832 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC WED JUN 30 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 109.6W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 109.6W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 109.4W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.8N 110.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.3N 111.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.8N 112.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 109.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm Enrique Graphics
2021-06-30 04:49:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 02:49:15 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 30 Jun 2021 03:22:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-06-30 04:48:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 300248 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 After spending nearly a day mostly devoid of deep, organized convection, Enrique was able to re-develop a small convective burst, beginning just after the previous advisory. While not particularly well-organized, the convective depth is fairly cold, between -65 to -70 C, and has been persistent enough near the low-level circulation center that it justifies maintaining advisories at this time. The initial intensity remains estimated at 35 kt in accordance with the earlier scatterometer data when Enrique still lacked convection, though this estimate could be generous given the lower subjective satellite estimates provided by SAB and TAFB. The cyclone continues to move to the northwest, but appears to have sped up a bit, with an estimated motion of 315/10 kt. This general heading should continue over the next 12 hours as the small storm continues to track further into the Gulf of California. Thereafter, the system is forecast to take a slight leftward bend, which could bring the tropical cyclone near the coast of Baja California by 24 hours. The most recent forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory, with the exception of a slight leftward shift after 24 hours, blending the reliable HCCA and TVCE consensus aids. Despite the recent small convective burst just east of Enrique's center, which was well anticipated by the ECMWF and HWRF, the cyclone is expected to spin down further, especially as its small circulation begins to interact with the higher terrain of Baja California. Enrique is expected to weaken into a tropical depression in the next 12 hours, with dissipation likely by 48 hours after moving over land. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 23.8N 109.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 24.5N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 25.2N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 01/1200Z 25.5N 111.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
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