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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-06-29 22:47:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 292047 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 Enrique has been unable to sustain deep, organized convection near its center for over 18 hours, despite some seemingly favorable environmental conditions (namely, warm sea-surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear). Drier mid-level air to the west of the system may be partly to blame, but it remains somewhat unclear why Enrique is struggling so much. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF suggest Enrique could experience a brief flare-up of convection this evening, as it will still be located over warm sea-surface temperatures near the entrance to the Gulf of California. Therefore, Enrique is maintained as a tropical cyclone for this advisory. The initial intensity of 35 kt is supported by several recent scatterometer passes that showed a small area of tropical-storm-force winds in the eastern semicircle. The cyclone is now moving northwestward, or 325/8 kt. This general motion should continue for the next day or two as the system moves into the Gulf of California and near or over the Baja California Peninsula. The latest NHC track forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and it still lies near the center of the guidance envelope and close to the consensus aids. Without any convective organization, Enrique is forecast to continue slowly weakening, and it should become a tropical depression as it approaches the Baja California Peninsula and dissipate by Thursday once it moves over land. Based on the latest NHC forecast, the government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the next couple days. This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 23.2N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 23.9N 109.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 24.6N 110.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 25.4N 111.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 01/1800Z 26.0N 112.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2021-06-29 22:46:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 292045 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LA PAZ 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-29 22:45:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE STILL BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH... As of 3:00 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 the center of Enrique was located near 23.2, -108.3 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 19
2021-06-29 22:45:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 292045 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 300 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021 ...ENRIQUE STILL BARELY A TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 108.3W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Cabo San Lucas to Los Barriles. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 108.3 West. Enrique is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Enrique is expected to move near or over portions of the southern Baja California Peninsula late tonight and Wednesday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Enrique is forecast to dissipate on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center, mainly in the eastern semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum amounts of 6 inches across Sinola, western Durango and southern Chihuahua in western Mexico and 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 4 inches across the southern portions of Baja California Sur. These rainfall totals may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico, as well as portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 19
2021-06-29 22:44:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 292044 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 2100 UTC TUE JUN 29 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR CABO SAN LUCAS TO LOS BARRILES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 108.3W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 108.3W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 108.0W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 23.9N 109.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.6N 110.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 25.4N 111.3W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.0N 112.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 108.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/BEVEN
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