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Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Discussion Number 4
2021-06-26 04:39:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 260238 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 Enrique's cloud pattern has continued to improve since this afternoon. There has been a notable increase in banding, and the Central Dense Overcast has become more symmetric. In addition, a SSMIS microwave overpass from shortly before 0000 UTC revealed an improved inner core structure with a band of deep convection wrapping about three-quarters of the way around the center. The latest subjective Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB are T3.5 (55 kt) and T3.0 (45 kt), respectively. Given the improvement in structure the intensity was increased to 55 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate advisory and remains at that value for this advisory. The tropical storm is forecast to remain within an environment of low vertical wind shear and over warm sea surface temperatures during the next 24 to 36 hours. Those favorable conditions along with Enrique's improved inner core structure are likely to result in a period of rapid strengthening during the next day or so. In fact, the SHIPS guidance explicitly calls for rapid strengthening, and the latest NHC forecast follows suit. The new NHC intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity near major hurricane strength in 36 hours and lies between the SHIPS model and the slightly lower HCCA and ICON consensus aids. After 36-48 h, increasing shear, and possibly cooler upwelled waters, are likely to induce steady weakening throughout the remainder of the forecast period. Enrique continues to move west-northwestward or 295/8 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the storm is forecast to weaken over the next day or so which should cause Enrique to slow down and bend northwestward between 24 and 60 hours. After that time, the ridge is expected to re-strengthen causing the tropical cyclone to turn west-northwestward once again. There has been little overall change to the track guidance this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast is not very different from before. It should be noted that the GFS and HWRF models depict a sharper northward turn over the weekend and bring the center of Enrique somewhat closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico than the remainder of the guidance, however the most recent run of the HWRF has trended westward during the early portion of the forecast. Key Messages: 1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains across portions of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days, which could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected across portions of southwestern Mexico tonight and this weekend, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of that area. 3. Swells generated by Enrique are expected to affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.3N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 17.8N 106.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 18.9N 106.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 19.8N 107.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 29/0000Z 20.5N 108.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 30/0000Z 21.5N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)
2021-06-26 04:38:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ENRIQUE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 the center of Enrique was located near 16.3, -104.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 4
2021-06-26 04:38:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 260238 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 1000 PM CDT Fri Jun 25 2021 ...ENRIQUE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 104.1W ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 104.1 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm is forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest Saturday night or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly heading through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Enrique is likely to become a hurricane later tonight or on Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Enrique Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
2021-06-26 04:38:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 260238 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 9(21) 4(25) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 9(20) 2(22) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 16(24) 23(47) 2(49) X(49) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MAZATLAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 9(14) 2(16) X(16) SAN BLAS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) P VALLARTA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 7(21) X(21) X(21) P VALLARTA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 21 11(32) 3(35) 2(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 1 5( 6) 12(18) 9(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MANZANILLO 34 8 17(25) 18(43) 7(50) 3(53) X(53) X(53) MANZANILLO 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) L CARDENAS 34 3 3( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 110W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 22(33) 8(41) 1(42) 20N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 20N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 9(15) 5(20) 1(21) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Tropical Storm Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-06-26 04:38:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 260237 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0300 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 104.1W AT 26/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 0SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 104.1W AT 26/0300Z AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 103.8W FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.7N 105.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.1N 105.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 106.3W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.9N 106.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.8N 107.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.5N 108.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 21.5N 109.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 104.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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