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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 6

2021-06-26 16:52:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 261452 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 1500 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.3W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 105.3W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.1W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.5N 105.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 106.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.4N 106.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 20.1N 107.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.6N 107.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 21.3N 108.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.1N 109.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 22.9N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 105.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN/STEWART

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Hurricane Enrique Graphics

2021-06-26 14:28:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Jun 2021 12:28:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Jun 2021 09:22:35 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane Enrique (EP5/EP052021)

2021-06-26 13:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY... As of 7:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 the center of Enrique was located near 16.8, -105.0 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 988 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

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Hurricane Enrique Public Advisory Number 5A

2021-06-26 13:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 261143 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 700 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 ...ENRIQUE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.8N 105.0W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Hurricane Watch may be required for portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico later today. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Enrique was located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 105.0 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). The storm is forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest tonight or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly heading through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Enrique is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Through Monday, Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches over Colima and coastal sections of Michoacan and Jalisco in southwest Mexico. These amounts would likely produce life- threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Papin/Stewart

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