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Hurricane Enrique Forecast Advisory Number 5

2021-06-26 10:49:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 260849 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052021 0900 UTC SAT JUN 26 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO CORRIENTES TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.7W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 104.7W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 104.5W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.9N 105.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...130NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 106.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.5N 106.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.5N 107.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.2N 107.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 20.7N 108.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 21.5N 109.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.5N 111.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 104.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 26/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Storm Enrique Graphics

2021-06-26 07:35:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 26 Jun 2021 05:35:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 26 Jun 2021 03:22:31 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Enrique (EP5/EP052021)

2021-06-26 07:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ENRIQUE STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... As of 1:00 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 the center of Enrique was located near 16.5, -104.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

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Tropical Storm Enrique Public Advisory Number 4A

2021-06-26 07:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 260535 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Enrique Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052021 100 AM CDT Sat Jun 26 2021 ...ENRIQUE STILL FORECAST TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 104.3W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...115 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to San Blas Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Enrique was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 104.3 West. Enrique is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). The storm is forecast to gradually slow down and turn toward the northwest Saturday night or Sunday, and then continue on a northwesterly heading through Monday. On the forecast track, the core of Enrique is expected to remain offshore roughly parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next two to three days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (115 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Enrique is likely to become a hurricane today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Enrique can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5, WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring in the eastern portions of the warning area. These winds are expected to spread westward within the warning area tonight and through the weekend. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday. RAINFALL: Enrique is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with possible isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides over portions of southwestern Mexico. SURF: Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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